Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corp. (AGM)
NYSEFinancialsFinancial - Credit ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-09
$224.45-0.73%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsFinancial - Credit ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-09
Broken: Recent financial performance freshly dropped to the bottom half of its industry.
Federal Agricultural Mortgage keeps raising net income and operating income. Dividends are steady and growing, with $1.6 per share in 2026-Q1. The company trades cheap with a PE of 11.6 and a free cash flow yield of 10%. Management is focused on stable dividends and profit growth.
Rising credit risk threatens net income growth. Revenue is expected to fall sharply by about 54% next year. The recent $100 million preferred stock sale signals capital pressure. CEO transition adds uncertainty.
The market prices in about -54% revenue growth and values the stock roughly 10% above our fair value near $182. We see the price as unjustified given the fragile quality and risks from credit and capital.
Breaks if: net income declines due to rising credit losses beyond current levels
Breaks if: dividend per share falls below $1.6 annually
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a turnaround story with some volatility in management execution. The current thesis state is weakened due to recent financial performance slipping in comparison to peers.
The market appears to price AGM as cheap relative to peers, but there is an expectations gap suggesting that investors are cautious about future performance. The valuation reflects a divergence driven by the company's recent struggles.
Management is focused on growing business volume and net interest income, which have shown strong year-over-year growth. However, the expense efficiency ratio is behind target, indicating potential challenges in cost management.
The thesis hinges on whether AGM can maintain guidance and if sector leaders like Visa, Mastercard, and American Express continue to perform well. Any negative guidance from AGM or misses from these bellwethers could significantly impact AGM's outlook.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has weakened. AGM's recent financial performance dropped from the top half to the bottom half of its industry. This change indicates a weakened reason to own the stock. The latest earnings beat and improved efficiency ratio support AGM's net income goals. However, the overall standing in its sector has deteriorated.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Continue paying quarterly dividends on common and preferred stock to provide shareholder returns.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Management consistently declared quarterly dividends of $1.60 per share on common stock and dividends on preferred stock, maintaining steady shareholder returns. Dividend per share was $1.6 in 2026-Q1 and 2026-Q2, consistent with management's commitment.
“Board declared quarterly dividend on Series I Preferred Stock payable July 17, 2026.”
“Board declared quarterly dividend of $1.60 per share of common stock payable June 30, 2026.”
“Board declared quarterly dividend of $1.60 per share of common stock payable March 31, 2026.”
Breaks if: net income falls below $59.1M in any quarter after 2026-Q1
Breaks if: operating income falls below $71.4M in any quarter after 2026-Q1
Over the next 1 to 3 years, AGM's performance will depend on its ability to execute on management priorities and navigate sector dynamics. Not investment advice.