Alamos Gold Inc (AGI)

NYSEMaterialsGoldSnapshot 2026-10-23

$29.94-1.19%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Alamos Gold Inc’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.7%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

2.84 → 2.86 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 7 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 7 to 7; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	633.17M
EPS	—	0.593
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	2.4B
EPS	—	2.156
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	3.05B
EPS	—	2.858

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
earnings per share at or above $2.48 in FY26	Analysts expect earnings per share around $2.48 in 2026 and $3.21 in 2027.	Broken	EPS falls below $2.48 in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
maintain positive net profit margins	A supporting condition in Alamos Gold Inc's published investment case. The stated target is positive net margins.	Intact	net profit margin turns negative over next 4 quarters	Net margin: 45.51% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: positive net margins. Target percentage unit is not explicit. Source published Jul 30, 202645.514223 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
revenue near $2.5 billion in FY26	Gold price stability supports revenue near $2.5 billion this year.	Broken	revenue falls significantly below $2.5 billion in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$2.86

$3.24 → $2.86 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenueUnavailable

$3.04B → Unavailable · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$3.24	$3,041,317,600	13 / 5
2026-07-25	$3.19	Unavailable	13 / 4
2026-07-26	$3.19	Unavailable	13 / 4
2026-07-27	$3.05	Unavailable	7 / 4
2026-07-28	$3.19	Unavailable	13 / 4
2026-07-29	$3.21	Unavailable	11 / 4
2026-07-30	$3.19	$3,126,196,070	12 / 5
2026-07-31	$3.18	$3,126,196,070	12 / 5
2026-08-01	$3.12	Unavailable	7 / 4
2026-08-02	$3.14	$3,140,847,540	12 / 8
2026-08-03	$3.14	$3,140,847,540	12 / 8
2026-08-04	$3.14	$3,140,847,540	12 / 8
2026-08-05	$3.13	$3,103,295,580	12 / 7
2026-08-06	$3.13	$3,103,295,580	12 / 7
2026-08-07	$3.13	$3,103,295,580	12 / 7
2026-08-08	$3.12	$3,193,096,670	12 / 7
2026-08-09	$3.12	$3,193,096,670	12 / 7
2026-08-10	$3.12	$3,193,096,670	12 / 7
2026-08-11	$3.07	$3,103,289,310	13 / 7
2026-08-12	$3.07	$3,103,289,310	13 / 7
2026-08-13	$3.07	$3,103,289,310	13 / 7
2026-08-14	$2.86	Unavailable	7 / 4
2026-08-15	$2.86	$3,065,256,062	7 / 5
2026-08-16	$2.86	$3,065,256,062	7 / 5
2026-08-17	$2.86	$3,065,256,062	7 / 5
2026-08-18	$2.86	$3,065,256,062	7 / 5
2026-08-19	$2.86	$3,065,256,062	7 / 5
2026-08-20	$2.86	$3,065,256,062	7 / 5
2026-08-21	$2.83	$3,055,970,580	7 / 6
2026-08-22	$2.83	$3,055,970,580	7 / 6
2026-08-23	$2.83	$3,055,970,580	7 / 6
2026-08-24	$2.83	$3,055,970,580	7 / 6
2026-08-25	$2.83	$3,055,970,580	7 / 6
2026-08-26	$2.83	$3,055,970,580	7 / 6
2026-08-27	$2.83	$3,055,970,580	7 / 6
2026-08-28	$2.83	$3,055,970,580	7 / 6
2026-08-29	$2.83	$3,055,970,580	7 / 6
2026-08-30	$2.83	$3,055,970,580	7 / 6
2026-08-31	$2.83	$3,055,970,580	7 / 6
2026-09-01	$2.83	$3,055,970,580	7 / 6
2026-09-02	$2.83	$3,055,970,580	7 / 6
2026-09-03	$2.83	$3,055,970,580	7 / 6
2026-09-04	$2.83	$3,055,970,580	7 / 6
2026-09-05	$2.83	$3,055,970,580	7 / 6
2026-09-06	$2.83	$3,055,970,580	7 / 6
2026-09-07	$2.83	$3,055,970,580	7 / 6
2026-09-08	$2.83	$3,055,970,580	7 / 6
2026-09-09	$2.83	$3,055,970,576	7 / 6
2026-09-10	$2.83	$3,055,970,576	7 / 6
2026-09-11	$2.83	$3,055,970,576	7 / 6
2026-09-12	$2.83	$3,055,970,576	7 / 6
2026-09-13	$2.83	$3,055,970,576	7 / 6
2026-09-14	$2.83	$3,055,970,576	7 / 6
2026-09-15	$2.83	$3,055,970,576	7 / 6
2026-09-16	$2.83	$3,055,970,580	7 / 6
2026-09-17	$2.80	$3,041,970,580	7 / 6
2026-09-18	$2.80	$3,041,970,580	7 / 6
2026-09-19	$2.80	$3,041,970,580	7 / 6
2026-09-20	$2.80	$3,041,970,580	7 / 6
2026-09-21	$2.80	$3,041,970,580	7 / 7
2026-09-22	$2.81	$3,042,005,310	7 / 6
2026-09-23	$2.84	$3,056,159,157	7 / 6
2026-09-24	$2.84	$3,056,159,157	7 / 5
2026-09-25	$2.84	$3,056,159,157	7 / 5
2026-09-26	$2.84	$3,056,159,157	7 / 5
2026-09-27	$2.84	$3,056,159,157	7 / 5
2026-09-28	$2.84	$3,056,159,157	7 / 5
2026-09-29	$2.84	$3,066,968,128	7 / 5
2026-09-30	$2.83	$3,066,968,128	7 / 5
2026-10-01	$2.83	$3,066,968,128	7 / 5
2026-10-02	$2.83	$3,066,968,128	7 / 5
2026-10-03	$2.83	$3,047,783,412	7 / 5
2026-10-04	$2.83	$3,057,861,754	7 / 5
2026-10-05	$2.83	$3,057,861,754	7 / 5
2026-10-06	$2.83	$3,057,861,754	7 / 5
2026-10-07	$2.83	$3,057,861,754	7 / 5
2026-10-08	$2.83	$3,057,861,754	7 / 5
2026-10-09	$2.83	$3,057,861,754	7 / 5
2026-10-10	$2.83	$3,050,361,754	7 / 5
2026-10-11	$2.82	$3,048,618,938	7 / 5
2026-10-12	$2.82	$3,048,618,938	7 / 5
2026-10-13	$2.82	$3,048,618,938	7 / 5
2026-10-14	$2.82	$3,048,618,938	7 / 5
2026-10-15	$2.82	Unavailable	7 / 4
2026-10-16	$2.82	Unavailable	7 / 4
2026-10-17	$2.82	Unavailable	7 / 4
2026-10-18	$2.93	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-10-19	$2.93	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-10-20	$2.92	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-10-21	$2.90	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-10-22	$2.90	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-10-23	$2.90	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-10-24	$2.86	Unavailable	7 / 4

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	13	0
2026-06-01	13	0
2026-07-01	13	0
2026-08-01	13	0
2026-09-01	13	0
2026-10-01	13	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 13 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

earnings per share at or above $2.48 in FY26Published status: Broken
maintain positive net profit marginsNet margin: 45.51%
revenue near $2.5 billion in FY26Published status: Broken

Next proof point

Oct 28, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.9%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-49.7%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Alamos Gold Inc outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

AGI is a growth-sensitive Materials company, so its business setup depends partly on the sector backdrop. The long-term thesis state is insufficient because there is not enough recent financial-performance history to assess it.

What's priced into Alamos Gold Inc

The evidence does not provide a valuation comparison or clear account of what expectations are priced in. Fragility is rated low because no fragility gates fired, though this does not resolve the broader thesis uncertainty.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, the estimated miss risk is 26%, described as low, but the industry has a high miss rate and AGI has had a deep miss in its recent history. The risk label recently eased from high to elevated, while the sector backdrop remains a headwind.

What Alamos Gold Inc hinges on

Over the coming months, continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector bellwethers NEM, RGLD, and CDE could support Materials sector momentum. Misses or lower guidance could weaken that support; materially slower GDP growth from 2.2% to below 2% would also be a stronger headwind for the sector.