AES Corporation (AES)

NYSEUtilitiesDiversified UtilitiesSnapshot 2026-10-15

$14.95-0.13%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge AES Corporation’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

4 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Reaffirm 2025 Adjusted EBITDA guidance of $2,650 to $2,850 million	A primary condition in AES Corporation's published investment case. The stated target is $2.65B to $2.85B Adjusted EBITDA in 2025.	Intact	Adjusted EBITDA falls below $2.65 billion in 2025	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Reaffirmed in 5 of last 5 quarters. Adjusted EBITDA guidance for 2025 remains at $2.65B to $2.85B with a 5% to 7% growth target through 2027. Quarterly Adjusted EBITDA grew from $681M in 2025-Q2 to $830M in 2025-Q3, indicating progress consistent with guidance. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Stable and effective management execution	A supporting condition in AES Corporation's published investment case. The stated target is Maintain or improve current execution scores.	Intact	Significant management instability or failure to meet goals	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Sign 14-17 GW of Power Purchase Agreements from 2023 to 2025	A primary condition in AES Corporation's published investment case. The stated target is 14-17 GW signed by end of 2025.	Improving	PPA signings fall below 14 GW by end 2025	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 5 of last 5 quarters. Management consistently emphasized signing 14-17 GW of PPAs from 2023 to 2025, with a backlog around 11-12 GW. The backlog shows some fluctuation but remains substantial, indicating ongoing progress toward the target. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Add 3.2 GW of new renewable projects in operation in 2025	AES is growing with new renewable projects.	Intact	New projects added fall below 3.2 GW in 2025	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 5 of last 5 quarters. Management consistently reaffirmed the goal to add 3.2 GW of new renewable projects in operation in 2025, with 2.9 GW completed by 2025-Q3. This trajectory is delivering as planned toward the year-end target. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPSUnavailable

$2.38 → Unavailable · observed estimates

FY2027 revenueUnavailable

$13.44B → Unavailable · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$2.38	$13,440,759,960	11 / 6
2026-07-25	$2.38	$13,440,759,960	11 / 6
2026-07-26	$2.38	$13,440,759,960	11 / 6
2026-07-27	$2.38	$13,440,759,960	11 / 6
2026-07-28	$2.38	$13,440,759,960	11 / 6
2026-07-29	$2.38	$13,440,759,960	11 / 6
2026-07-30	$2.38	$13,440,759,960	11 / 6
2026-07-31	$2.47	$15,961,306,796	6 / 5
2026-08-01	$2.38	$13,440,759,960	11 / 6
2026-08-02	$2.38	$13,437,926,620	11 / 6
2026-08-03	$2.38	$13,437,926,620	11 / 6
2026-08-04	$2.38	$13,437,926,620	11 / 6
2026-08-05	$2.38	$13,437,926,620	11 / 6
2026-08-06	$2.38	$13,437,926,620	11 / 6
2026-08-07	$2.38	$13,437,926,620	11 / 6
2026-08-08	$2.38	$13,437,926,620	11 / 6
2026-08-09	$2.38	$13,437,926,620	11 / 6
2026-08-10	$2.38	$13,437,926,620	11 / 6
2026-08-11	$2.38	$13,437,926,620	11 / 6
2026-08-12	$2.38	$13,437,926,620	11 / 6
2026-08-13	$2.38	$13,437,926,620	11 / 6
2026-08-14	$2.47	$13,500,153,398	6 / 5
2026-08-15	$2.47	$13,500,153,398	6 / 5
2026-08-16	$2.47	$13,500,153,398	6 / 5
2026-08-17	$2.47	$13,500,153,398	6 / 5
2026-08-18	$2.47	$13,500,153,398	6 / 5
2026-08-19	$2.47	$13,500,153,398	6 / 5
2026-08-20	$2.47	$13,500,153,398	6 / 5
2026-08-21	$2.42	$13,500,153,398	6 / 5
2026-08-22	$2.42	$13,500,153,398	6 / 5
2026-08-23	$2.42	$13,500,153,398	6 / 5
2026-08-24	$2.42	$13,500,153,398	6 / 5
2026-08-25	$2.42	$13,500,153,398	6 / 5
2026-08-26	$2.42	$13,500,153,398	6 / 5
2026-08-27	$2.42	$13,500,153,398	6 / 5
2026-08-28	$2.42	$13,500,153,398	6 / 5
2026-08-29	$2.42	$13,500,153,398	6 / 5
2026-08-30	$2.42	$13,500,153,398	6 / 5
2026-08-31	$2.42	$13,500,153,398	6 / 5
2026-09-01	$2.42	$13,500,153,398	6 / 5
2026-09-02	$2.42	$13,500,153,398	6 / 5
2026-09-03	$2.42	$13,500,153,398	6 / 5
2026-09-04	$2.42	$13,500,153,398	6 / 5
2026-09-05	$2.42	$13,500,153,398	6 / 5
2026-09-06	$2.42	$13,500,153,398	6 / 5
2026-09-07	$2.42	$13,500,153,398	6 / 5
2026-09-08	$2.42	$13,500,153,398	6 / 5
2026-09-09	$2.42	$13,500,153,398	6 / 5
2026-09-10	$2.42	$13,500,153,398	5 / 5
2026-09-11	$2.42	$13,500,153,398	5 / 5
2026-09-12	$2.42	$13,500,153,398	6 / 5
2026-09-13	$2.42	$13,500,153,398	6 / 5
2026-09-14	$2.42	$13,500,153,398	6 / 5
2026-09-15	$2.42	$13,500,153,398	6 / 5
2026-09-16	$2.42	$13,500,153,398	6 / 5
2026-09-17	$2.42	$13,500,153,398	6 / 5
2026-09-18	$2.42	$13,500,153,398	6 / 5
2026-09-19	$2.42	$13,500,153,398	6 / 5
2026-09-20	$2.42	$13,500,153,398	6 / 5
2026-09-21	$2.42	$13,500,153,398	6 / 5
2026-09-22	$2.42	$13,500,153,398	5 / 5
2026-09-23	$2.42	$13,500,153,398	5 / 5
2026-09-24	$2.42	$13,500,153,398	5 / 5
2026-09-25	$2.42	$13,500,153,398	5 / 5
2026-09-26	$2.42	$13,500,153,398	5 / 5
2026-09-27	$2.42	$13,500,153,398	5 / 5
2026-09-28	$2.42	$13,500,153,398	5 / 5
2026-09-29	$2.42	$13,500,153,398	5 / 5
2026-09-30	$2.42	$13,500,153,398	5 / 5
2026-10-01	$2.42	$13,500,153,398	5 / 5
2026-10-02	$2.42	$13,500,153,398	5 / 5
2026-10-03	$2.42	$13,500,153,398	5 / 5
2026-10-04	$2.42	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-05	$2.42	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-06	$2.42	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-07	$2.43	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-08	$2.43	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-09	$2.46	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-10	$2.46	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	1	10
2026-06-01	1	10
2026-07-01	0	10
2026-08-01	0	10
2026-09-01	0	10
2026-10-01	0	9

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 0 Buy / Strong Buy · 9 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Reaffirm 2025 Adjusted EBITDA guidance of $2,650 to $2,850 millionDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Stable and effective management executionDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Sign 14-17 GW of Power Purchase Agreements from 2023 to 2025Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Add 3.2 GW of new renewable projects in operation in 2025Direct metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Nov 3, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

0.1%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-19.0%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

AES Corporation outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a long-term thesis on a utility company with a focus on renewable energy. It has a medium confidence level due to recent weak financial performance and volatile management, but it is on track with its operational goals.

What's priced into AES Corporation

The market currently prices AES as cheap compared to its peers, with an expectations gap indicating lower anticipated performance. There is a low fragility tier, suggesting that the stock's current valuation is justified given its recent changes.

What the fundamentals likely do

Fundamentals are expected to show gradual improvement as management executes on its renewable project goals and maintains its Adjusted EBITDA guidance. However, the recent financial performance has been weak, and there is a moderate risk of missing future earnings expectations.

What AES Corporation hinges on

The long-term thesis hinges on external factors such as potential Federal Reserve rate cuts and the performance of sector peers. Additionally, any negative guidance from management could significantly impact investor sentiment.