American Electric Power (AEP)

NASDAQUtilitiesRegulated ElectricSnapshot 2026-10-15

$127.14+2.29%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge American Electric Power’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.1%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

6.86 → 6.87 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 12 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 12 to 12; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

4 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
EPS of $6.15 to $6.45 in 2026	American Electric Power aims to grow earnings with a 2026 EPS target of $6.15 to $6.45.	Intact	EPS falls below $6.15 in FY26	Diluted EPS: $1.30 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: EPS between $6.15 and $6.45. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 30, 20261.3 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: e0102d0c-1c6f-46cf-9f66-2bc339493e80. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Investment in transmission and renewables	Investments in renewables and data center infrastructure support steady revenue growth near 7%.	Intact	Significant cuts or delays in infrastructure investments	Qualitative: $78B capex plan & $4B fuel cell deal active AEP is executing a $78B capital plan through 2030, including a $4B fuel cell deal to power Google data centers. Context reviewed through Oct 15, 2026Last status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Operating income at least $1.36B in 2026-Q1	Operating income rose from $1.11B in 2025-Q4 to $1.36B in 2026-Q1.	Intact	Operating income falls below $1.11B (2025-Q4 level) in future quarters	Operating income: $1.247B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Operating income >= $1.36B. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Jul 30, 20261,247,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: e0102d0c-1c6f-46cf-9f66-2bc339493e80. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue growth near 7% annually	A primary condition in American Electric Power's published investment case. The stated target is >=7% YoY revenue growth.	Intact	Revenue growth falls below 5% YoY next year	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$6.87

$6.86 → $6.87 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$24.83B

$24.94B → $24.83B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$6.86	$24,942,670,280	24 / 16
2026-07-25	$6.86	$24,943,068,040	24 / 16
2026-07-26	$6.86	$24,943,068,040	24 / 16
2026-07-27	$6.86	$24,943,068,040	24 / 16
2026-07-28	$6.86	$24,943,068,040	24 / 16
2026-07-29	$6.85	$24,943,068,040	20 / 16
2026-07-30	$6.85	$24,943,068,040	20 / 16
2026-07-31	$6.85	$24,943,068,040	20 / 16
2026-08-01	$6.85	$24,943,068,040	20 / 16
2026-08-02	$6.85	$24,979,515,420	20 / 16
2026-08-03	$6.85	$24,979,515,420	20 / 16
2026-08-04	$6.85	$24,979,515,420	20 / 16
2026-08-05	$6.85	$24,979,515,420	20 / 16
2026-08-06	$6.85	$24,979,515,420	20 / 16
2026-08-07	$6.86	$24,744,577,639	13 / 12
2026-08-08	$6.86	$25,066,013,310	20 / 17
2026-08-09	$6.86	$25,066,013,310	20 / 17
2026-08-10	$6.86	$25,066,013,310	20 / 17
2026-08-11	$6.86	$25,066,013,310	20 / 17
2026-08-12	$6.86	$25,066,013,310	20 / 17
2026-08-13	$6.86	$25,066,013,310	20 / 17
2026-08-14	$6.86	$24,744,577,639	13 / 12
2026-08-15	$6.86	$24,744,577,639	13 / 12
2026-08-16	$6.86	$24,744,577,639	12 / 12
2026-08-17	$6.86	$24,744,577,639	12 / 12
2026-08-18	$6.86	$24,744,577,639	12 / 12
2026-08-19	$6.86	$24,744,577,639	12 / 12
2026-08-20	$6.86	$24,744,577,639	12 / 12
2026-08-21	$6.86	$24,823,647,774	13 / 12
2026-08-22	$6.86	$24,824,820,213	13 / 12
2026-08-23	$6.86	$24,824,820,213	13 / 12
2026-08-24	$6.86	$24,824,820,213	13 / 12
2026-08-25	$6.86	$24,824,820,213	13 / 12
2026-08-26	$6.86	$24,824,820,213	13 / 12
2026-08-27	$6.86	$24,824,820,213	13 / 12
2026-08-28	$6.86	$24,824,820,213	13 / 12
2026-08-29	$6.86	$24,824,820,213	13 / 12
2026-08-30	$6.86	$24,824,820,213	13 / 12
2026-08-31	$6.86	$24,824,820,213	13 / 12
2026-09-01	$6.86	$24,824,820,213	13 / 12
2026-09-02	$6.86	$24,824,820,213	12 / 12
2026-09-03	$6.86	$24,824,820,213	12 / 12
2026-09-04	$6.86	$24,824,820,213	12 / 12
2026-09-05	$6.86	$24,824,820,213	12 / 12
2026-09-06	$6.86	$24,824,820,213	12 / 12
2026-09-07	$6.86	$24,824,820,213	12 / 12
2026-09-08	$6.86	$24,824,820,213	12 / 12
2026-09-09	$6.86	$24,824,820,213	12 / 12
2026-09-10	$6.86	$24,824,820,213	12 / 12
2026-09-11	$6.86	$24,824,820,213	12 / 12
2026-09-12	$6.86	$24,824,820,213	12 / 12
2026-09-13	$6.86	$24,824,820,214	12 / 12
2026-09-14	$6.86	$24,824,820,214	12 / 12
2026-09-15	$6.86	$24,824,820,214	12 / 12
2026-09-16	$6.86	$24,824,286,881	12 / 12
2026-09-17	$6.86	$24,824,286,880	12 / 12
2026-09-18	$6.86	$24,824,286,880	12 / 12
2026-09-19	$6.86	$24,824,286,880	12 / 12
2026-09-20	$6.86	$24,822,328,482	12 / 12
2026-09-21	$6.86	$24,822,328,482	12 / 12
2026-09-22	$6.86	$24,822,328,482	12 / 12
2026-09-23	$6.86	$24,822,328,482	12 / 12
2026-09-24	$6.86	$24,822,328,482	12 / 12
2026-09-25	$6.86	$24,822,328,483	12 / 12
2026-09-26	$6.86	$24,822,328,483	12 / 12
2026-09-27	$6.86	$24,822,328,483	12 / 12
2026-09-28	$6.86	$24,822,328,483	12 / 12
2026-09-29	$6.86	$24,822,328,483	12 / 12
2026-09-30	$6.86	$24,822,328,483	12 / 12
2026-10-01	$6.86	$24,822,358,449	12 / 12
2026-10-02	$6.86	$24,822,358,449	12 / 12
2026-10-03	$6.86	$24,822,358,449	12 / 12
2026-10-04	$6.86	$24,822,358,449	12 / 12
2026-10-05	$6.86	$24,822,358,449	12 / 12
2026-10-06	$6.86	$24,822,358,449	12 / 12
2026-10-07	$6.86	$24,822,358,449	12 / 12
2026-10-08	$6.86	$24,822,358,449	12 / 12
2026-10-09	$6.87	$24,822,328,483	12 / 12
2026-10-10	$6.87	$24,822,328,483	12 / 12
2026-10-11	$6.87	$24,822,328,483	12 / 12
2026-10-12	$6.87	$24,822,328,483	12 / 12
2026-10-13	$6.87	$24,822,328,483	12 / 12
2026-10-14	$6.87	$24,826,588,483	12 / 12
2026-10-15	$6.87	$24,826,588,483	12 / 12

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	14	11
2026-06-01	14	11
2026-07-01	14	12
2026-08-01	13	11
2026-09-01	13	10
2026-10-01	14	10

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 14 Buy / Strong Buy · 10 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

1 upgrades0 downgrades2 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 3 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

KeyBancOct 12

$133.00New observation · no comparable prior

UBSSep 21

$139.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$76.45$152.90

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 2 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

EPS of $6.15 to $6.45 in 2026Diluted EPS: $1.30 per share
Operating income at least $1.36B in 2026-Q1Operating income: $1.247B
Revenue growth near 7% annuallyDirect metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Oct 28, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

0.7%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-15.2%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

American Electric Power outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

AEP represents a stable utility investment with a focus on growth through capital investment and load expansion. The current thesis state is mixed, reflecting recent earnings misses and management changes, but overall fundamentals remain strong.

What's priced into American Electric Power

The market seems to have priced in a low level of fragility, with expectations for AEP's performance being justified. Valuation is aligned with peers, indicating that the market does not anticipate significant changes in performance in the near term.

What the fundamentals likely do

Management has raised guidance for operating earnings, indicating confidence in future growth. However, recent earnings misses and a management change introduce some uncertainty, though the risk of missing future targets remains low.

What American Electric Power hinges on

The long-term thesis hinges on management's ability to execute on their capital plan and maintain earnings guidance. Additionally, external factors such as Federal Reserve interest rate decisions and sector performance from peers will significantly influence AEP's trajectory.