Advanced Energy (AEIS)

NASDAQInformation TechnologyHardware, Equipment & PartsSnapshot 2026-10-23

$216.63-0.00%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Advanced Energy’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+1.1%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

15.19 → 15.36 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 8 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 8 to 8; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q3
Revenue	$620M–$660M	—
EPS	$2.13–$2.63GAAP $2.75–$3.25non-GAAP	—
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	693.57M
EPS	—	3.415
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	—	2.42B
EPS	—	11.272
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	3.02B
EPS	—	15.358

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Maintain quarterly dividends near $3.8 million	The company maintains dividends near $3.8 million quarterly.	Intact	Quarterly dividends fall below $3.5 million	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 5 of last 5 quarters. The company consistently paid a quarterly dividend of $0.1 per share from 2025-Q2 through 2026-Q2, totaling approximately $4 million per quarter. This demonstrates consistent delivery on the dividend payment commitment. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Maintain operating income above $68 million	Operating income rose to $68.3 million in Q1, showing better profit.	Under Pressure	Operating income falls below $60 million next year	Operating income: $95.1M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $68 million operating income. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 3, 202695,100,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 8b759918-f343-4f2f-9e9d-2ad6b59e2a32. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 5 of last 5 quarters. Operating income increased from $31.6 million in 2025-Q2 to $95.1 million in 2026-Q2, with operating margin rising from 7.6% in 2025-Q4 to 13.4% in 2026-Q2. Management consistently highlights operational initiatives and diversification benefits, and the financials show delivering meaningful improvement in operating income. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Sustain revenue growth near 25% YoY	A primary condition in Advanced Energy's published investment case. The stated target is >=25% YoY revenue growth.	Intact	YoY revenue growth falls below 20% next year	Revenue growth: 30.03% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=25% YoY revenue growth. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 3, 202630.033975 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 8b759918-f343-4f2f-9e9d-2ad6b59e2a32. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$15.36

$12.29 → $15.36 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$3.02B

$2.70B → $3.02B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$12.29	$2,699,421,900	12 / 12
2026-07-25	$12.29	$2,699,421,900	12 / 12
2026-07-26	$12.29	$2,699,421,900	12 / 12
2026-07-27	$12.29	$2,699,388,489	9 / 9
2026-07-28	$12.29	$2,699,421,900	12 / 12
2026-07-29	$12.29	$2,699,421,900	12 / 12
2026-07-30	$12.29	$2,699,421,900	12 / 12
2026-07-31	$12.29	$2,699,421,900	12 / 12
2026-08-01	$12.29	$2,699,421,900	12 / 12
2026-08-02	$12.29	$2,699,421,900	12 / 12
2026-08-03	$12.29	$2,699,388,489	9 / 9
2026-08-04	$12.29	$2,699,421,900	12 / 12
2026-08-05	$14.35	$2,921,209,270	12 / 12
2026-08-06	$14.35	$2,921,209,270	12 / 12
2026-08-07	$15.19	$3,008,809,268	9 / 9
2026-08-08	$15.19	$3,008,817,600	12 / 12
2026-08-09	$15.19	$3,008,817,600	12 / 12
2026-08-10	$15.19	$3,008,817,600	12 / 12
2026-08-11	$15.19	$3,008,809,268	9 / 9
2026-08-12	$15.19	$3,008,817,600	12 / 12
2026-08-13	$15.19	$3,008,817,600	12 / 12
2026-08-14	$15.19	$3,008,809,268	9 / 9
2026-08-15	$15.19	$3,008,809,268	9 / 9
2026-08-16	$15.19	$3,008,809,268	9 / 9
2026-08-17	$15.19	$3,008,809,268	9 / 9
2026-08-18	$15.19	$3,008,809,268	9 / 9
2026-08-19	$15.19	$3,008,809,268	9 / 9
2026-08-20	$15.19	$3,008,809,268	9 / 9
2026-08-21	$15.19	$3,008,809,268	9 / 9
2026-08-22	$15.19	$3,008,809,268	9 / 9
2026-08-23	$15.19	$3,008,809,268	9 / 9
2026-08-24	$15.19	$3,008,809,268	9 / 9
2026-08-25	$15.19	$3,008,809,268	9 / 9
2026-08-26	$15.19	$3,008,817,601	9 / 9
2026-08-27	$15.19	$3,008,817,601	9 / 9
2026-08-28	$15.19	$3,008,817,601	9 / 9
2026-08-29	$15.19	$3,008,817,601	9 / 9
2026-08-30	$15.19	$3,008,817,601	9 / 9
2026-08-31	$15.19	$3,008,817,601	9 / 9
2026-09-01	$15.19	$3,008,817,601	9 / 9
2026-09-02	$15.19	$3,008,817,601	9 / 9
2026-09-03	$15.19	$3,008,817,601	9 / 9
2026-09-04	$15.19	$3,008,817,601	9 / 9
2026-09-05	$15.19	$3,008,817,601	9 / 9
2026-09-06	$15.19	$3,008,817,601	9 / 9
2026-09-07	$15.19	$3,008,817,601	9 / 9
2026-09-08	$15.19	$3,008,817,601	9 / 9
2026-09-09	$15.19	$3,008,817,601	9 / 9
2026-09-10	$15.19	$3,008,817,601	9 / 9
2026-09-11	$15.19	$3,008,817,601	9 / 9
2026-09-12	$15.19	$3,008,817,601	9 / 9
2026-09-13	$15.19	$3,008,817,601	9 / 9
2026-09-14	$15.19	$3,008,817,601	9 / 9
2026-09-15	$15.19	$3,008,817,601	9 / 9
2026-09-16	$15.19	$3,008,817,601	9 / 9
2026-09-17	$15.19	$3,008,817,601	9 / 9
2026-09-18	$15.19	$3,008,817,601	9 / 9
2026-09-19	$15.19	$3,008,817,601	9 / 9
2026-09-20	$15.19	$3,008,817,601	9 / 9
2026-09-21	$15.19	$3,008,817,601	9 / 9
2026-09-22	$15.19	$3,008,817,601	9 / 9
2026-09-23	$15.19	$3,008,817,601	9 / 9
2026-09-24	$15.19	$3,008,817,601	8 / 8
2026-09-25	$15.19	$3,008,817,601	9 / 9
2026-09-26	$15.19	$3,008,817,601	9 / 9
2026-09-27	$15.19	$3,008,817,601	9 / 9
2026-09-28	$15.19	$3,008,817,601	9 / 9
2026-09-29	$15.19	$3,008,817,601	9 / 9
2026-09-30	$15.19	$3,008,817,601	9 / 9
2026-10-01	$15.19	$3,008,817,601	9 / 9
2026-10-02	$15.19	$3,008,817,601	9 / 9
2026-10-03	$15.19	$3,008,817,601	9 / 9
2026-10-04	$15.19	$3,008,817,601	9 / 9
2026-10-05	$15.19	$3,008,817,601	9 / 9
2026-10-06	$15.19	$3,008,817,601	9 / 9
2026-10-07	$15.19	$3,008,850,935	9 / 9
2026-10-08	$15.19	$3,008,817,601	9 / 9
2026-10-09	$15.19	$3,008,817,601	9 / 9
2026-10-10	$15.28	$3,015,984,268	9 / 9
2026-10-11	$15.28	$3,015,984,268	9 / 9
2026-10-12	$15.28	$3,015,984,268	9 / 9
2026-10-13	$15.28	$3,015,984,268	9 / 9
2026-10-14	$15.28	$3,015,984,268	9 / 9
2026-10-15	$15.28	$3,015,984,268	9 / 9
2026-10-16	$15.28	$3,015,984,268	9 / 9
2026-10-17	$15.28	$3,015,984,268	9 / 9
2026-10-18	$15.28	$3,015,967,585	9 / 9
2026-10-19	$15.28	$3,015,967,585	9 / 9
2026-10-20	$15.36	$3,023,692,585	8 / 9
2026-10-21	$15.36	$3,023,692,585	8 / 9
2026-10-22	$15.36	$3,023,694,370	8 / 9
2026-10-23	$15.36	$3,023,694,370	8 / 9
2026-10-24	$15.36	$3,023,694,370	8 / 9

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	7	3
2026-06-01	8	3
2026-07-01	10	3
2026-08-01	11	2
2026-09-01	11	1
2026-10-01	11	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 11 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Maintain quarterly dividends near $3.8 millionDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Maintain operating income above $68 millionPublished status: Under Pressure
Sustain revenue growth near 25% YoYRevenue growth: 30.03%

Next proof point

Nov 2, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

2.8%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-44.3%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Advanced Energy outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

AEIS is an improving business with a recovery-oriented multi-year view, rather than a proven durable compounder. The thesis is intact, supported by strong recent performance, but revenue growth remains a management priority to watch and earnings quality is fragile.

What's priced into Advanced Energy

The valuation evidence points to AEIS as cheap versus peers, while the priced-in assessment labels expectations justified rather than unusually fragile. The expectations gap is negative, but confidence in that measure is low, so the valuation signal is limited.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near-term performance has been strong: momentum improved, an earnings beat was recorded, and operating income and margins rose through 2026-Q2. Management’s operating-income priority is on track, but revenue growth remains under watch; elevated risk and a 26% estimated miss probability leave room for execution setbacks.

What Advanced Energy hinges on

The near-term downside case is a guidance cut, especially given recent misses among industry peers and AEIS’s history of a deep miss. The favorable case depends in part on continued earnings strength from sector bellwethers and potential rate cuts, while AEIS’s own revenue growth and operating gains remain central to the multi-year thesis.