Adaptive Biotechnologies Corp. (ADPT)

Q: What's priced into Adaptive Biotechnologies Corp. (ADPT) stock?

ADPT trades at a durable premium to peers, and the valuation tag says that premium is justified, though model confidence is low. The expectations gap is modestly negative, suggesting expectations may be somewhat ahead of what the evidence supports.

Q: What does the Adaptive Biotechnologies Corp. (ADPT) outlook hinge on?

The multi-year view hinges on sustaining strong MRD growth while keeping operating expenses within guidance and making the recent debt repayment improve financial flexibility. Healthcare sector momentum could help near term if major sector companies continue to report strong results, while weaker employment data or a cut to recently raised guidance would challenge the thesis.

NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-10-23

$25.51+4.51%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Adaptive Biotechnologies Corp.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	79.26M
EPS	—	-0.066
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	$268M–$278M	293.24M
EPS	—	-0.54
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	360.11M
EPS	—	-0.173

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Effective use of $345 million convertible notes for buybacks and debt repayment	The $345 million convertible notes fund share buybacks, supporting capital allocation.	Improving	Convertible notes proceeds not used for planned buybacks or debt repayment	Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Operating expenses controlled between $350 million and $360 million in 2026	A supporting condition in Adaptive Biotechnologies Corp.'s published investment case. The stated target is operating expenses >= $350 million and <= $360 million.	Intact	operating expenses exceed $360 million or fall below $350 million in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Positive adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow by end of 2026	The company aims for positive adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow by end of 2026.	Improving	adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow remain negative through FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
MRD revenue reaches $260-$270 million in 2026	A primary condition in Adaptive Biotechnologies Corp.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $260 million and <= $270 million.	Intact	MRD revenue falls below $260 million in FY26	Revenue: $71.553M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $260 million and <= $270 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 4, 202671,553,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 8d0a7002-4d67-46e6-8360-42d228f5fb04. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$-0.17

$-0.24 → $-0.17 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$0.36B

$0.35B → $0.36B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$-0.24	$352,208,000	7 / 8
2026-07-25	$-0.24	$352,208,000	7 / 8
2026-07-26	$-0.24	$352,208,000	7 / 8
2026-07-27	$-0.24	$352,208,000	7 / 8
2026-07-28	$-0.24	$352,208,000	7 / 8
2026-07-29	$-0.24	$352,208,000	7 / 8
2026-07-30	$-0.21	$354,524,632	6 / 7
2026-07-31	$-0.24	$352,208,000	7 / 8
2026-08-01	$-0.22	$354,597,680	7 / 8
2026-08-02	$-0.18	$357,385,180	7 / 8
2026-08-03	$-0.18	$357,385,180	7 / 8
2026-08-04	$-0.18	$357,385,180	7 / 8
2026-08-05	$-0.17	$357,328,569	6 / 6
2026-08-06	$-0.18	$358,535,180	7 / 8
2026-08-07	$-0.18	$358,535,180	7 / 8
2026-08-08	$-0.18	$358,535,180	7 / 8
2026-08-09	$-0.18	$358,535,180	7 / 8
2026-08-10	$-0.18	$358,535,180	7 / 8
2026-08-11	$-0.18	$358,535,180	7 / 8
2026-08-12	$-0.18	$358,535,180	7 / 8
2026-08-13	$-0.18	$358,535,180	7 / 8
2026-08-14	$-0.18	$357,328,569	6 / 7
2026-08-15	$-0.18	$357,328,569	6 / 7
2026-08-16	$-0.18	$357,328,569	6 / 7
2026-08-17	$-0.18	$357,328,569	6 / 7
2026-08-18	$-0.18	$357,328,569	6 / 7
2026-08-19	$-0.18	$357,328,569	6 / 7
2026-08-20	$-0.18	$357,328,569	6 / 7
2026-08-21	$-0.18	$358,478,569	6 / 7
2026-08-22	$-0.18	$358,478,569	6 / 7
2026-08-23	$-0.18	$358,478,569	6 / 7
2026-08-24	$-0.18	$358,478,569	6 / 7
2026-08-25	$-0.18	$358,478,569	6 / 7
2026-08-26	$-0.18	$358,478,569	6 / 7
2026-08-27	$-0.18	$358,478,569	6 / 7
2026-08-28	$-0.18	$358,478,569	6 / 7
2026-08-29	$-0.18	$358,478,569	6 / 7
2026-08-30	$-0.18	$358,478,569	6 / 7
2026-08-31	$-0.18	$358,478,569	6 / 7
2026-09-01	$-0.18	$358,478,569	6 / 7
2026-09-02	$-0.18	$358,478,569	6 / 7
2026-09-03	$-0.18	$358,478,569	6 / 7
2026-09-04	$-0.18	$358,478,569	6 / 7
2026-09-05	$-0.18	$358,478,569	6 / 7
2026-09-06	$-0.18	$358,478,569	6 / 7
2026-09-07	$-0.18	$358,478,569	6 / 7
2026-09-08	$-0.18	$358,478,569	6 / 7
2026-09-09	$-0.18	$358,478,569	6 / 7
2026-09-10	$-0.18	$358,478,569	6 / 7
2026-09-11	$-0.18	$358,478,569	6 / 7
2026-09-12	$-0.18	$358,478,569	6 / 7
2026-09-13	$-0.18	$358,478,569	6 / 7
2026-09-14	$-0.18	$358,478,569	6 / 7
2026-09-15	$-0.18	$358,478,569	6 / 7
2026-09-16	$-0.18	$358,478,569	6 / 7
2026-09-17	$-0.18	$358,478,569	6 / 7
2026-09-18	$-0.18	$358,478,569	6 / 7
2026-09-19	$-0.18	$358,478,569	6 / 7
2026-09-20	$-0.18	$358,478,569	6 / 7
2026-09-21	$-0.18	$358,478,569	6 / 7
2026-09-22	$-0.17	$359,032,319	6 / 7
2026-09-23	$-0.17	$359,003,382	6 / 7
2026-09-24	$-0.17	$359,003,382	6 / 7
2026-09-25	$-0.17	$359,004,507	6 / 7
2026-09-26	$-0.17	$359,004,507	6 / 7
2026-09-27	$-0.17	$359,004,507	6 / 7
2026-09-28	$-0.17	$359,004,507	6 / 7
2026-09-29	$-0.17	$359,004,507	6 / 7
2026-09-30	$-0.17	$360,365,895	6 / 7
2026-10-01	$-0.17	$360,365,895	6 / 7
2026-10-02	$-0.17	$359,143,673	6 / 7
2026-10-03	$-0.17	$359,143,673	6 / 7
2026-10-04	$-0.17	$359,143,673	6 / 7
2026-10-05	$-0.17	$359,143,673	6 / 7
2026-10-06	$-0.17	$359,143,673	6 / 7
2026-10-07	$-0.17	$359,143,673	6 / 7
2026-10-08	$-0.17	$359,143,673	6 / 7
2026-10-09	$-0.17	$359,143,673	6 / 7
2026-10-10	$-0.17	$359,143,673	6 / 7
2026-10-11	$-0.17	$359,143,673	6 / 7
2026-10-12	$-0.17	$359,143,673	6 / 7
2026-10-13	$-0.17	$359,143,673	6 / 7
2026-10-14	$-0.17	$359,143,673	6 / 7
2026-10-15	$-0.17	$359,143,673	6 / 7
2026-10-16	$-0.17	$359,186,605	6 / 7
2026-10-17	$-0.17	$359,186,605	6 / 7
2026-10-18	$-0.17	$359,186,605	6 / 7
2026-10-19	$-0.17	$359,186,605	6 / 7
2026-10-20	$-0.17	$359,186,605	6 / 7
2026-10-21	$-0.17	$359,186,605	6 / 7
2026-10-22	$-0.17	$360,106,549	6 / 7
2026-10-23	$-0.17	$360,106,549	6 / 7
2026-10-24	$-0.17	$360,106,549	6 / 6

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	7	1
2026-06-01	7	1
2026-07-01	7	1
2026-08-01	7	1
2026-09-01	8	1
2026-10-01	8	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 8 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades3 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 3 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Morgan StanleyOct 12 · prior Jul 9

$20.00 → $27.00+35.0%

GuggenheimOct 1 · prior Jul 30

$25.00 → $32.00+28.0%

Goldman SachsSep 29

$35.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$19.25$38.50

2 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Effective use of $345 million convertible notes for buybacks and debt repaymentQualitative condition
Operating expenses controlled between $350 million and $360 million in 2026Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Positive adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow by end of 2026Direct metric needs a verified mapping
MRD revenue reaches $260-$270 million in 2026Revenue: $71.553M

Next proof point

Nov 4, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

2.1%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-39.4%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Adaptive Biotechnologies Corp. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a growth-oriented healthcare business with a loss-making profile, not a proven profitable compounder. Its long-term thesis is intact, with recent performance holding in the top half of its industry, but evidence is mixed and confidence is medium.

What's priced into Adaptive Biotechnologies Corp.

ADPT trades at a durable premium to peers, and the valuation tag says that premium is justified, though model confidence is low. The expectations gap is modestly negative, suggesting expectations may be somewhat ahead of what the evidence supports.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, MRD revenue growth and controlled expense increases support management’s execution record: MRD revenue rose 33% year over year in 2026-Q2, while operating expenses rose 4%. Management raised full-year MRD guidance and narrowed its expense range, but the business remains loss-making, and a guidance reversal or weakening jobs data would add risk.

What Adaptive Biotechnologies Corp. hinges on

The multi-year view hinges on sustaining strong MRD growth while keeping operating expenses within guidance and making the recent debt repayment improve financial flexibility. Healthcare sector momentum could help near term if major sector companies continue to report strong results, while weaker employment data or a cut to recently raised guidance would challenge the thesis.

Bottom line

ADPT’s growth and cost-control execution keep the long-term thesis intact, but its loss-making profile, elevated risk, and premium valuation leave little room for execution to falter. Not investment advice.

Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	79.26M
EPS	—	-0.066
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	$268M–$278M	293.24M
EPS	—	-0.54
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	360.11M
EPS	—	-0.173

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$-0.17

$-0.24 → $-0.17 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$0.36B

$0.35B → $0.36B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$-0.24	$352,208,000	7 / 8
2026-07-25	$-0.24	$352,208,000	7 / 8
2026-07-26	$-0.24	$352,208,000	7 / 8
2026-07-27	$-0.24	$352,208,000	7 / 8
2026-07-28	$-0.24	$352,208,000	7 / 8
2026-07-29	$-0.24	$352,208,000	7 / 8
2026-07-30	$-0.21	$354,524,632	6 / 7
2026-07-31	$-0.24	$352,208,000	7 / 8
2026-08-01	$-0.22	$354,597,680	7 / 8
2026-08-02	$-0.18	$357,385,180	7 / 8
2026-08-03	$-0.18	$357,385,180	7 / 8
2026-08-04	$-0.18	$357,385,180	7 / 8
2026-08-05	$-0.17	$357,328,569	6 / 6
2026-08-06	$-0.18	$358,535,180	7 / 8
2026-08-07	$-0.18	$358,535,180	7 / 8
2026-08-08	$-0.18	$358,535,180	7 / 8
2026-08-09	$-0.18	$358,535,180	7 / 8
2026-08-10	$-0.18	$358,535,180	7 / 8
2026-08-11	$-0.18	$358,535,180	7 / 8
2026-08-12	$-0.18	$358,535,180	7 / 8
2026-08-13	$-0.18	$358,535,180	7 / 8
2026-08-14	$-0.18	$357,328,569	6 / 7
2026-08-15	$-0.18	$357,328,569	6 / 7
2026-08-16	$-0.18	$357,328,569	6 / 7
2026-08-17	$-0.18	$357,328,569	6 / 7
2026-08-18	$-0.18	$357,328,569	6 / 7
2026-08-19	$-0.18	$357,328,569	6 / 7
2026-08-20	$-0.18	$357,328,569	6 / 7
2026-08-21	$-0.18	$358,478,569	6 / 7
2026-08-22	$-0.18	$358,478,569	6 / 7
2026-08-23	$-0.18	$358,478,569	6 / 7
2026-08-24	$-0.18	$358,478,569	6 / 7
2026-08-25	$-0.18	$358,478,569	6 / 7
2026-08-26	$-0.18	$358,478,569	6 / 7
2026-08-27	$-0.18	$358,478,569	6 / 7
2026-08-28	$-0.18	$358,478,569	6 / 7
2026-08-29	$-0.18	$358,478,569	6 / 7
2026-08-30	$-0.18	$358,478,569	6 / 7
2026-08-31	$-0.18	$358,478,569	6 / 7
2026-09-01	$-0.18	$358,478,569	6 / 7
2026-09-02	$-0.18	$358,478,569	6 / 7
2026-09-03	$-0.18	$358,478,569	6 / 7
2026-09-04	$-0.18	$358,478,569	6 / 7
2026-09-05	$-0.18	$358,478,569	6 / 7
2026-09-06	$-0.18	$358,478,569	6 / 7
2026-09-07	$-0.18	$358,478,569	6 / 7
2026-09-08	$-0.18	$358,478,569	6 / 7
2026-09-09	$-0.18	$358,478,569	6 / 7
2026-09-10	$-0.18	$358,478,569	6 / 7
2026-09-11	$-0.18	$358,478,569	6 / 7
2026-09-12	$-0.18	$358,478,569	6 / 7
2026-09-13	$-0.18	$358,478,569	6 / 7
2026-09-14	$-0.18	$358,478,569	6 / 7
2026-09-15	$-0.18	$358,478,569	6 / 7
2026-09-16	$-0.18	$358,478,569	6 / 7
2026-09-17	$-0.18	$358,478,569	6 / 7
2026-09-18	$-0.18	$358,478,569	6 / 7
2026-09-19	$-0.18	$358,478,569	6 / 7
2026-09-20	$-0.18	$358,478,569	6 / 7
2026-09-21	$-0.18	$358,478,569	6 / 7
2026-09-22	$-0.17	$359,032,319	6 / 7
2026-09-23	$-0.17	$359,003,382	6 / 7
2026-09-24	$-0.17	$359,003,382	6 / 7
2026-09-25	$-0.17	$359,004,507	6 / 7
2026-09-26	$-0.17	$359,004,507	6 / 7
2026-09-27	$-0.17	$359,004,507	6 / 7
2026-09-28	$-0.17	$359,004,507	6 / 7
2026-09-29	$-0.17	$359,004,507	6 / 7
2026-09-30	$-0.17	$360,365,895	6 / 7
2026-10-01	$-0.17	$360,365,895	6 / 7
2026-10-02	$-0.17	$359,143,673	6 / 7
2026-10-03	$-0.17	$359,143,673	6 / 7
2026-10-04	$-0.17	$359,143,673	6 / 7
2026-10-05	$-0.17	$359,143,673	6 / 7
2026-10-06	$-0.17	$359,143,673	6 / 7
2026-10-07	$-0.17	$359,143,673	6 / 7
2026-10-08	$-0.17	$359,143,673	6 / 7
2026-10-09	$-0.17	$359,143,673	6 / 7
2026-10-10	$-0.17	$359,143,673	6 / 7
2026-10-11	$-0.17	$359,143,673	6 / 7
2026-10-12	$-0.17	$359,143,673	6 / 7
2026-10-13	$-0.17	$359,143,673	6 / 7
2026-10-14	$-0.17	$359,143,673	6 / 7
2026-10-15	$-0.17	$359,143,673	6 / 7
2026-10-16	$-0.17	$359,186,605	6 / 7
2026-10-17	$-0.17	$359,186,605	6 / 7
2026-10-18	$-0.17	$359,186,605	6 / 7
2026-10-19	$-0.17	$359,186,605	6 / 7
2026-10-20	$-0.17	$359,186,605	6 / 7
2026-10-21	$-0.17	$359,186,605	6 / 7
2026-10-22	$-0.17	$360,106,549	6 / 7
2026-10-23	$-0.17	$360,106,549	6 / 7
2026-10-24	$-0.17	$360,106,549	6 / 6

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings