Automatic Data Processing (ADP)

NASDAQIndustrialsSoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-10-15

$288.90+1.14%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Automatic Data Processing’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.0%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

13.39 → 13.39 EPS · FY ending Jun 30, 2028 · 10 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 11 to 10; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

4 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Adjusted diluted EPS growth of 10-11%	A primary condition in Automatic Data Processing's published investment case. The stated target is 10-11% EPS growth.	Intact	EPS growth falls below 8% next year	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Adjusted EBIT margin expansion of 70-80 basis points	A supporting condition in Automatic Data Processing's published investment case. The stated target is >=0.7% expansion.	Improving	EBIT margin expansion is less than 0.3% in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 6 of last 6 quarters. Adjusted EBIT margin expanded from 26.0% in 2025 to 26.8% in 2026, an 80 basis point increase. Management projects further margin expansion of 70 to 90 basis points in fiscal 2027, showing consistent delivery and continued focus on margin improvement. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Gross margin near 26%	Profit margins stay strong near 26%.	Intact	Gross margin falls below 24% next year	Gross margin: 52.97% FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: >=26% gross margin. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 5, 202652.974168 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q4 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q4. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 6 of last 6 quarters. Adjusted EBIT margin expanded from 26.0% in 2025 to 26.8% in 2026, an 80 basis point increase. Management projects further margin expansion of 70 to 90 basis points in fiscal 2027, showing consistent delivery and continued focus on margin improvement. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Revenue growth of at least 7% YoY	A primary condition in Automatic Data Processing's published investment case. The stated target is >=7% YoY.	Intact	YoY revenue growth falls below 6% next year	Revenue growth: 6.77% FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: >=7% YoY. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 5, 20266.768355 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q4 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q4. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 6 of last 6 quarters. Revenue grew from $20.6 billion in 2025 to $21.9 billion in 2026, net earnings increased from $4.1 billion to $4.4 billion, and diluted EPS rose from $9.98 to $10.94. Management consistently projects revenue growth of 5-6% and adjusted diluted EPS growth of 9-11%, indicating delivery on growth commitments. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-06-30 · fmp

FY2028 EPS$13.39

$13.36 → $13.39 · observed estimates

FY2028 revenue$24.54B

$24.55B → $24.54B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2028 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$13.36	$24,547,610,434	10 / 13
2026-07-25	$13.36	$24,547,610,434	10 / 13
2026-07-26	$13.36	$24,547,610,434	10 / 13
2026-07-27	$13.36	$24,547,610,434	10 / 13
2026-07-28	$13.36	$24,547,610,436	10 / 13
2026-07-29	$13.36	$24,547,610,436	10 / 13
2026-07-30	$13.35	$24,465,980,250	12 / 13
2026-07-31	$13.38	$24,534,118,332	9 / 12
2026-08-01	$13.37	$24,553,900,060	15 / 16
2026-08-02	$13.37	$24,553,900,060	15 / 16
2026-08-03	$13.40	$24,555,456,310	17 / 16
2026-08-04	$13.40	$24,555,456,310	17 / 16
2026-08-05	$13.40	$24,555,456,310	17 / 16
2026-08-06	$13.40	$24,555,456,310	17 / 16
2026-08-07	$13.40	$24,555,456,310	17 / 16
2026-08-08	$13.40	$24,555,456,310	17 / 16
2026-08-09	$13.40	$24,555,456,310	17 / 16
2026-08-10	$13.40	$24,555,456,310	17 / 16
2026-08-11	$13.39	$24,535,784,999	10 / 12
2026-08-12	$13.40	$24,555,456,310	18 / 16
2026-08-13	$13.40	$24,555,456,310	18 / 16
2026-08-14	$13.39	$24,535,784,999	10 / 12
2026-08-15	$13.39	$24,535,784,999	10 / 12
2026-08-16	$13.39	$24,535,784,999	10 / 12
2026-08-17	$13.39	$24,535,784,999	10 / 12
2026-08-18	$13.39	$24,535,784,999	10 / 12
2026-08-19	$13.39	$24,535,784,999	10 / 12
2026-08-20	$13.39	$24,535,784,999	10 / 12
2026-08-21	$13.39	$24,535,787,226	11 / 12
2026-08-22	$13.39	$24,535,787,226	11 / 12
2026-08-23	$13.39	$24,535,787,226	11 / 12
2026-08-24	$13.39	$24,535,787,226	11 / 12
2026-08-25	$13.39	$24,535,787,225	11 / 12
2026-08-26	$13.39	$24,535,787,225	11 / 12
2026-08-27	$13.39	$24,535,787,225	11 / 12
2026-08-28	$13.39	$24,535,787,225	11 / 12
2026-08-29	$13.39	$24,535,787,225	11 / 12
2026-08-30	$13.39	$24,535,787,225	11 / 12
2026-08-31	$13.39	$24,535,787,225	11 / 12
2026-09-01	$13.39	$24,535,787,225	11 / 12
2026-09-02	$13.39	$24,535,787,225	11 / 12
2026-09-03	$13.39	$24,535,787,225	11 / 12
2026-09-04	$13.39	$24,535,787,225	11 / 12
2026-09-05	$13.39	$24,535,787,225	11 / 12
2026-09-06	$13.39	$24,535,787,225	11 / 12
2026-09-07	$13.39	$24,535,787,225	11 / 12
2026-09-08	$13.39	$24,535,787,225	11 / 12
2026-09-09	$13.39	$24,535,787,225	11 / 12
2026-09-10	$13.39	$24,535,787,225	11 / 12
2026-09-11	$13.39	$24,535,787,225	11 / 12
2026-09-12	$13.39	$24,535,787,225	11 / 12
2026-09-13	$13.39	$24,535,787,225	11 / 12
2026-09-14	$13.39	$24,535,787,225	11 / 12
2026-09-15	$13.39	$24,535,787,226	11 / 12
2026-09-16	$13.39	$24,535,787,226	11 / 12
2026-09-17	$13.39	$24,535,787,226	11 / 12
2026-09-18	$13.39	$24,535,787,226	11 / 12
2026-09-19	$13.39	$24,535,787,226	11 / 12
2026-09-20	$13.39	$24,535,787,226	11 / 12
2026-09-21	$13.39	$24,535,787,226	11 / 12
2026-09-22	$13.39	$24,535,787,226	11 / 12
2026-09-23	$13.39	$24,535,787,226	11 / 12
2026-09-24	$13.39	$24,535,787,226	11 / 12
2026-09-25	$13.39	$24,535,784,999	11 / 12
2026-09-26	$13.39	$24,535,784,999	11 / 12
2026-09-27	$13.39	$24,535,784,999	11 / 12
2026-09-28	$13.39	$24,535,784,999	11 / 12
2026-09-29	$13.39	$24,535,784,999	11 / 12
2026-09-30	$13.39	$24,535,784,999	11 / 12
2026-10-01	$13.39	$24,535,784,999	11 / 12
2026-10-02	$13.39	$24,535,784,999	11 / 12
2026-10-03	$13.39	$24,535,784,999	11 / 12
2026-10-04	$13.39	$24,535,784,999	11 / 12
2026-10-05	$13.39	$24,535,784,999	11 / 12
2026-10-06	$13.39	$24,540,718,332	11 / 12
2026-10-07	$13.39	$24,540,718,332	11 / 12
2026-10-08	$13.39	$24,540,718,332	11 / 12
2026-10-09	$13.39	$24,540,924,999	11 / 12
2026-10-10	$13.39	$24,540,924,999	11 / 12
2026-10-11	$13.39	$24,540,891,666	11 / 12
2026-10-12	$13.39	$24,540,891,666	10 / 12
2026-10-13	$13.39	$24,540,893,892	10 / 12
2026-10-14	$13.39	$24,540,893,892	10 / 12
2026-10-15	$13.39	$24,540,893,892	10 / 12

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	5	12	3
2026-06-01	5	12	2
2026-07-01	5	12	2
2026-08-01	4	12	2
2026-09-01	4	12	2
2026-10-01	4	12	2

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 12 Hold · 2 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Adjusted diluted EPS growth of 10-11%Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Adjusted EBIT margin expansion of 70-80 basis pointsDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Gross margin near 26%Gross margin: 52.97%
Revenue growth of at least 7% YoYRevenue growth: 6.77%

Next proof point

Oct 28, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.0%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-32.6%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Automatic Data Processing outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

ADP represents a durable compounder with a focus on revenue and earnings growth. The current thesis state is stable, with management consistently delivering on growth commitments over the past quarters.

What's priced into Automatic Data Processing

The market appears to have a neutral valuation of ADP, with expectations that align closely with its recent performance. There is a slight premium compared to peers, indicating that while the stock is not overly cheap, it is not excessively expensive either.

What the fundamentals likely do

Fundamentals are likely to continue showing strength, as management has a clear focus on growth and margin expansion. However, there is a near-term risk of missing earnings expectations, although the probability of this happening is low.

What Automatic Data Processing hinges on

The thesis hinges on the performance of sector bellwethers like UBER, GRAB, and PAYC. If these companies continue to perform well, it could provide a favorable backdrop for ADP. Conversely, any negative guidance from these firms could impact ADP's momentum.