Archer Daniels Midland (ADM)

NYSEConsumer StaplesAgricultural Farm ProductsSnapshot 2026-10-15

$82.61-0.39%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Archer Daniels Midland’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-0.9%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

5.92 → 5.87 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 6 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 6 to 6; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

Three key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Achieve adjusted EPS between $4.15 and $4.70 in 2026	ADM raises its 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to about $4.15 to $4.70.	Under Pressure	Adjusted EPS falls below $4.15 in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Maintain capital expenditures between $1.3B and $1.5B in 2026	Capital spending is planned between $1.3 and $1.5 billion, supporting steady operations and growth.	Intact	Capital expenditures exceed $1.5 billion or fall below $1.3 billion in FY26	Capital expenditures: $272M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Between 1.3 and 1.5 billion USD. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 4, 2026272,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Capital expenditures guidance has consistently been maintained in the range of $1.3 billion to $1.5 billion for 2026. This reflects disciplined capital allocation with no significant deviation across the periods, indicating stable execution on capex management. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Sustain revenue growth near 7% per year	A primary condition in Archer Daniels Midland's published investment case. The stated target is >=7% YoY.	Improving	Revenue growth falls below 5% YoY next year	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$5.87

$5.46 → $5.87 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$93.07B

$88.64B → $93.07B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$5.46	$88,643,060,980	11 / 8
2026-07-25	$5.46	$88,643,060,980	11 / 8
2026-07-26	$5.46	$88,643,060,980	11 / 8
2026-07-27	$5.46	$88,643,060,980	11 / 8
2026-07-28	$5.46	$88,643,060,980	11 / 8
2026-07-29	$5.47	$88,643,060,980	11 / 8
2026-07-30	$5.47	$88,643,060,980	11 / 8
2026-07-31	$5.61	$89,716,581,305	6 / 6
2026-08-01	$5.47	$88,643,060,980	11 / 8
2026-08-02	$5.47	$88,643,060,980	11 / 8
2026-08-03	$5.47	$88,643,060,980	11 / 8
2026-08-04	$5.47	$88,643,060,980	11 / 8
2026-08-05	$5.48	$88,643,060,980	10 / 8
2026-08-06	$5.47	$88,643,060,980	11 / 8
2026-08-07	$5.83	$91,276,437,711	6 / 6
2026-08-08	$5.68	$89,799,322,520	11 / 8
2026-08-09	$5.68	$89,799,322,520	11 / 8
2026-08-10	$5.68	$89,799,322,520	11 / 8
2026-08-11	$5.68	$89,799,322,520	11 / 8
2026-08-12	$5.83	$91,276,437,711	6 / 6
2026-08-13	$5.68	$89,799,322,520	11 / 8
2026-08-14	$5.83	$91,276,437,711	6 / 6
2026-08-15	$5.83	$91,276,437,711	6 / 6
2026-08-16	$5.83	$91,276,437,711	6 / 6
2026-08-17	$5.83	$91,276,437,711	6 / 6
2026-08-18	$5.83	$91,276,437,711	6 / 6
2026-08-19	$5.83	$91,276,437,711	6 / 6
2026-08-20	$5.79	$91,276,437,711	6 / 6
2026-08-21	$5.79	$91,276,437,711	6 / 6
2026-08-22	$5.79	$91,276,437,711	6 / 6
2026-08-23	$5.79	$91,276,437,711	6 / 6
2026-08-24	$5.79	$91,276,437,711	6 / 6
2026-08-25	$5.79	$91,276,437,711	6 / 6
2026-08-26	$5.79	$91,538,387,118	6 / 6
2026-08-27	$5.79	$91,538,387,118	6 / 6
2026-08-28	$5.79	$91,538,387,118	6 / 6
2026-08-29	$5.82	$91,538,387,118	6 / 6
2026-08-30	$5.82	$91,538,387,118	6 / 6
2026-08-31	$5.82	$91,538,387,118	6 / 6
2026-09-01	$5.82	$91,538,387,118	6 / 6
2026-09-02	$5.82	$91,538,387,118	6 / 6
2026-09-03	$5.82	$91,538,387,118	6 / 6
2026-09-04	$5.82	$91,538,387,118	6 / 6
2026-09-05	$5.82	$91,538,387,118	6 / 6
2026-09-06	$5.82	$91,538,387,118	6 / 6
2026-09-07	$5.82	$91,538,387,118	6 / 6
2026-09-08	$5.82	$91,538,387,118	6 / 6
2026-09-09	$5.82	$91,538,387,118	6 / 6
2026-09-10	$5.92	$92,299,887,118	6 / 6
2026-09-11	$5.92	$92,299,887,118	6 / 6
2026-09-12	$5.92	$92,299,887,118	6 / 6
2026-09-13	$5.92	$92,299,887,118	6 / 6
2026-09-14	$5.92	$92,299,887,118	6 / 6
2026-09-15	$5.92	$92,299,887,118	6 / 6
2026-09-16	$5.92	$92,299,887,118	6 / 6
2026-09-17	$5.92	$92,299,887,118	6 / 6
2026-09-18	$5.92	$92,299,887,118	6 / 6
2026-09-19	$5.92	$92,299,887,118	6 / 6
2026-09-20	$5.92	$92,299,887,118	6 / 6
2026-09-21	$5.92	$92,299,887,118	6 / 6
2026-09-22	$5.92	$92,299,887,118	6 / 6
2026-09-23	$5.85	$92,299,887,118	6 / 6
2026-09-24	$5.85	$92,299,887,118	6 / 6
2026-09-25	$5.85	$92,299,887,118	6 / 6
2026-09-26	$5.85	$92,299,887,118	6 / 6
2026-09-27	$5.85	$92,299,887,118	6 / 6
2026-09-28	$5.85	$92,299,887,118	6 / 6
2026-09-29	$5.85	$92,299,887,118	6 / 6
2026-09-30	$5.85	$92,299,887,118	6 / 6
2026-10-01	$5.85	$92,299,887,118	5 / 6
2026-10-02	$5.85	$92,299,887,118	5 / 6
2026-10-03	$5.93	$92,299,887,118	5 / 6
2026-10-04	$5.93	$92,299,887,118	5 / 6
2026-10-05	$5.93	$92,299,887,118	5 / 6
2026-10-06	$5.93	$92,299,887,118	5 / 6
2026-10-07	$5.89	$92,299,887,118	6 / 6
2026-10-08	$5.89	$92,299,887,118	6 / 6
2026-10-09	$5.89	$92,299,887,118	6 / 6
2026-10-10	$5.89	$92,299,887,118	6 / 6
2026-10-11	$5.89	$92,299,887,118	6 / 6
2026-10-12	$5.89	$92,299,887,118	6 / 6
2026-10-13	$5.86	$93,072,311,723	6 / 5
2026-10-14	$5.86	$93,072,311,723	6 / 6
2026-10-15	$5.87	$93,072,311,723	6 / 6

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	1	7	3
2026-06-01	1	7	3
2026-07-01	1	7	3
2026-08-01	1	8	3
2026-09-01	1	8	2
2026-10-01	1	8	2

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 8 Hold · 2 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Coker PalmerOct 12

$75.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$41.25$82.50

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Achieve adjusted EPS between $4.15 and $4.70 in 2026Published status: Under Pressure
Maintain capital expenditures between $1.3B and $1.5B in 2026Capital expenditures: $272M
Sustain revenue growth near 7% per yearDirect metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Nov 3, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.2%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-12.3%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Archer Daniels Midland outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on steady earnings growth. The current thesis state is stable, supported by management's commitment to achieving adjusted earnings targets and operational improvements.

What's priced into Archer Daniels Midland

The market appears to have a neutral valuation stance on ADM, with expectations that are slightly below what management has guided. The company is priced at a premium compared to its peers, indicating that some growth is already expected.

What the fundamentals likely do

Fundamentals are likely to show continued progress in achieving earnings targets, as management has demonstrated effective execution in recent quarters. However, there is a moderate risk of missing expectations, particularly if broader economic conditions worsen.

What Archer Daniels Midland hinges on

The thesis hinges on key factors such as management's ability to maintain earnings guidance and the impact of inflation on the sector. Additionally, any changes in economic indicators, like the jobs report, could significantly affect performance.