NYSEConsumer StaplesAgricultural Farm ProductsSnapshot 2026-08-31
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Create your account →Warn: Primary pillar under pressure — Achieve adjusted EPS between $4.15 and $4.70 in 2026: FY26 EPS guidance $5.15-$5.60 vs $4.15-$4.70 target.
ADM raises its 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to about $4.15 to $4.70. The company beat EPS estimates in 4 of the last 5 quarters, showing stable profit margins. Capital spending is planned between $1.3 and $1.5 billion, supporting steady operations and growth.
ADM faces pressure from a soft guidance posture and a recent earnings miss. Revenue growth is modest at about 1% year-over-year recently. The stock trades at a premium to peers, which may limit upside if growth slows.
The market expects about 7% revenue growth and prices ADM roughly 9% above our model's valuation level. Our valuation is about 19% below the median analyst price, indicating some disagreement with the Street's more optimistic outlook.
Breaks if: Adjusted EPS falls below $4.15 in FY26
Focus on achieving the adjusted EPS target for 2026, with guidance set between $4.15 and $4.70.
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on steady earnings growth. The current thesis state indicates that while ADM has shown strong recent performance, it is under watch due to recent slippage in financial results.
Valuation is currently aligned with peers, suggesting that the market has priced in a reasonable outlook for ADM. The expectations gap is slightly negative, indicating that there may be some skepticism about future performance.
Fundamentals are likely to remain stable, as management is on track to meet adjusted EPS targets and has shown effective execution of cost initiatives. However, there is a moderate risk of missing future guidance, which could impact sentiment.
The thesis hinges on macroeconomic factors, such as the potential for inflation to reaccelerate, which could benefit ADM. Additionally, guidance cuts or continued weakness in jobs reports could negatively affect performance.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has weakened. The board resignation raises concerns about governance. This change affects leadership stability at ADM. The company needs to expand and strengthen its board.
as of 2026-08-31
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Breaks if: Capital expenditures exceed $1.5 billion or fall below $1.3 billion in FY26
Breaks if: Revenue growth falls below 5% YoY next year
Overall, ADM's performance is stable but requires close monitoring due to recent trends and external economic factors. Not investment advice.
