Adeia, Inc. (ADEA)

Q: What's priced into Adeia, Inc. (ADEA) stock?

The valuation evidence describes ADEA as cheap versus peers, with a modest expectations gap and low fragility. The snapshot does not give enough detail to say precisely what growth the market assumes; the valuation model has high confidence, while overall confidence is medium.

Q: What does the Adeia, Inc. (ADEA) outlook hinge on?

The thesis depends on continued revenue growth and progress in diversifying the customer base, alongside disciplined capital allocation and protection of intellectual property. Near term, a guidance cut would be a meaningful negative; easing rates and continued strong results from sector bellwethers such as SAP, CRM, and NOW are favorable factors. The CEO transition is a relevant uncertainty, but the evidence gives little detail on its likely effect.

NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-10-23

$21.21-0.28%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 25, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Adeia, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	116.27M
EPS	—	0.408
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	416.04M
EPS	—	1.424
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	451.06M
EPS	—	1.601

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Term loan balance reduces below $400M	A supporting condition in Adeia, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Term loan balance <= $398.6M.	Intact	Term loan balance rises above $426M	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 25, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Patent litigation supports licensing and IP value	A supporting condition in Adeia, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Effective enforcement of patent portfolio through litigation.	Intact	Loss of key patent cases or failure to secure licensing agreements	Qualitative: Multi-year licensing deal renewed TCL renewed multi-year licensing deal with Adeia for media IP, reinforcing revenue and customer base. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 25, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Management filed patent infringement litigation against FuboTV in 2026-Q2 to protect IP rights. This action aligns with the stated priority to enforce and defend intellectual property, showing delivering on this commitment. Delivery assessment Oct 25, 2026
Operating income improves and EBITDA margin holds near 60%	Profit improved with operating income up $12M to $34.8M and EBITDA margin steady at 60%.	Broken	Operating income falls below $22M or EBITDA margin below 50%	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 25, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Management stated this priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Operating income reached a record $108.8 million in 2025-Q4, up significantly from $27.0 million in 2025-Q3, showing strong profitability improvement. However, operating income declined from $34.8 million in 2026-Q1 to $25.4 million in 2026-Q2, indicating some short-term fluctuation but overall delivering on profitability enhancement. Delivery assessment Oct 25, 2026
Revenue grows to about $415M in FY26 with diversified customers	A primary condition in Adeia, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is ~$415M total revenue.	Intact	Revenue falls below $395M in FY26	Revenue: $96.117M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$415M total revenue. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 5, 202696,117,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 25, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: f2c63e35-aa83-425e-aa36-10c972ad8f77. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Management raised the long-term annual revenue outlook from $500 million to $600 million by 2026-Q2, driven by semiconductor business confidence. Non-Pay-TV recurring revenue grew 54% year-over-year in 2026-Q2 and 22% in 2025-Q4, showing delivering growth and diversification consistent with stated goals. Delivery assessment Oct 25, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS: comparable history unavailable.

FY2027 revenue: comparable history unavailable.

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-07-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-07-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-07-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-07-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-07-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-07-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-07-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
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2026-09-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
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2026-09-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
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2026-09-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
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2026-10-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
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2026-10-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	4	0	0
2026-06-01	4	0	0
2026-07-01	4	0	0
2026-08-01	4	0	0
2026-09-01	4	0	0
2026-10-01	4	0	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades2 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 26–Oct 25 · 2 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 26, 2026–Oct 25, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Term loan balance reduces below $400MDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Operating income improves and EBITDA margin holds near 60%Published status: Broken
Revenue grows to about $415M in FY26 with diversified customersRevenue: $96.117M

Next proof point

Nov 2, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.9%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-39.3%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Adeia, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

ADEA is a growth-and-income business with improving revenue diversification and disciplined capital allocation. Its long-term thesis is intact, but elevated risk and medium overall confidence make the outlook less settled than the recent improvement in momentum suggests.

What's priced into Adeia, Inc.

The valuation evidence describes ADEA as cheap versus peers, with a modest expectations gap and low fragility. The snapshot does not give enough detail to say precisely what growth the market assumes; the valuation model has high confidence, while overall confidence is medium.

What the fundamentals likely do

Over the multi-year view, management’s focus on growth and customer diversification has support: Non-Pay-TV recurring revenue grew 54% year over year in 2026-Q2, and management raised its long-term annual revenue outlook to $600 million by 2026-Q2. Near term, the next guidance update matters; guidance was reaffirmed on 2026-08-03, and the estimated miss risk is low, though peers have recently missed and ADEA has a history of a deep miss.

What Adeia, Inc. hinges on