ACV Auctions, Inc. (ACVA)

NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - DealershipsSnapshot 2026-10-23

$10.500.00%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge ACV Auctions, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-6.7%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

0.34 → 0.32 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 5 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 7 to 5; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	207.52M
EPS	—	0.023
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	$845M–$855M	848.36M
EPS	—	0.195
EBITDA	$73M–$77Mnon-GAAP	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	945.41M
EPS	—	0.321

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Adjusted EBITDA reaches $18M to $20M in Q2 2026	Profit margins improve with adjusted EBITDA near $19M in Q2.	Intact	Adjusted EBITDA falls below $15M in Q2 2026	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Management meets revenue growth target of 10%-12% YoY in Q2 2026	A supporting condition in ACV Auctions, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is 10%-12% YoY growth.	Intact	Revenue growth falls below 8% YoY in Q2 2026	Revenue growth: 10.45% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: 10%-12% YoY growth. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 10, 202610.447954 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 42d87359-4ef6-4c08-8551-662479502ba9. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue grows about 14% to $850M in 2026	ACV Auctions grows revenue about 14% yearly, aiming for $850M in 2026.	Intact	Revenue falls below $800M in FY26	Revenue: $213.941M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$850M. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 10, 2026213,941,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 42d87359-4ef6-4c08-8551-662479502ba9. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$0.32

$0.33 → $0.32 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$0.95B

$0.95B → $0.95B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$0.33	$951,598,036	8 / 9
2026-07-25	$0.33	$951,598,036	8 / 9
2026-07-26	$0.33	$951,598,036	8 / 9
2026-07-27	$0.33	$951,598,040	11 / 12
2026-07-28	$0.33	$951,598,040	11 / 12
2026-07-29	$0.33	$951,598,040	11 / 12
2026-07-30	$0.33	$951,598,040	11 / 12
2026-07-31	$0.33	$951,598,040	11 / 12
2026-08-01	$0.33	$951,598,040	11 / 12
2026-08-02	$0.33	$951,598,040	11 / 12
2026-08-03	$0.33	$951,598,040	11 / 12
2026-08-04	$0.33	$951,598,040	11 / 12
2026-08-05	$0.33	$951,598,036	8 / 9
2026-08-06	$0.33	$951,598,040	11 / 12
2026-08-07	$0.33	$951,598,036	8 / 9
2026-08-08	$0.33	$951,598,040	11 / 12
2026-08-09	$0.33	$951,598,040	11 / 12
2026-08-10	$0.33	$951,598,040	11 / 12
2026-08-11	$0.33	$951,598,040	11 / 12
2026-08-12	$0.33	$951,598,036	8 / 9
2026-08-13	$0.33	$951,598,036	8 / 9
2026-08-14	$0.33	$951,598,036	8 / 9
2026-08-15	$0.33	$951,598,036	8 / 9
2026-08-16	$0.33	$951,598,036	8 / 9
2026-08-17	$0.33	$951,598,036	8 / 9
2026-08-18	$0.33	$951,598,036	8 / 9
2026-08-19	$0.33	$951,598,036	8 / 9
2026-08-20	$0.33	$951,598,036	8 / 9
2026-08-21	$0.35	$944,077,407	8 / 9
2026-08-22	$0.35	$944,077,407	8 / 9
2026-08-23	$0.35	$944,077,407	8 / 9
2026-08-24	$0.35	$944,077,407	8 / 9
2026-08-25	$0.35	$944,077,407	8 / 9
2026-08-26	$0.35	$944,077,407	8 / 9
2026-08-27	$0.35	$944,077,407	8 / 9
2026-08-28	$0.35	$944,077,407	8 / 9
2026-08-29	$0.35	$944,077,407	8 / 9
2026-08-30	$0.35	$944,077,407	8 / 9
2026-08-31	$0.35	$944,077,407	8 / 9
2026-09-01	$0.35	$944,077,407	8 / 9
2026-09-02	$0.35	$944,077,407	8 / 9
2026-09-03	$0.35	$944,077,407	8 / 9
2026-09-04	$0.35	$944,077,407	8 / 9
2026-09-05	$0.35	$944,077,407	8 / 9
2026-09-06	$0.35	$944,077,407	8 / 9
2026-09-07	$0.35	$944,077,407	8 / 9
2026-09-08	$0.35	$944,077,407	8 / 9
2026-09-09	$0.35	$944,077,407	8 / 9
2026-09-10	$0.35	$944,077,407	8 / 9
2026-09-11	$0.35	$944,077,407	8 / 9
2026-09-12	$0.34	$942,088,717	8 / 9
2026-09-13	$0.34	$942,088,717	7 / 9
2026-09-14	$0.34	$942,088,717	7 / 9
2026-09-15	$0.34	$942,088,717	7 / 9
2026-09-16	$0.34	$942,088,717	7 / 9
2026-09-17	$0.34	$942,088,717	7 / 9
2026-09-18	$0.34	$942,088,717	7 / 9
2026-09-19	$0.34	$942,088,717	7 / 9
2026-09-20	$0.34	$942,088,717	7 / 9
2026-09-21	$0.34	$942,088,717	7 / 9
2026-09-22	$0.34	$942,088,717	7 / 9
2026-09-23	$0.34	$942,088,717	7 / 9
2026-09-24	$0.34	$942,088,717	7 / 8
2026-09-25	$0.34	$942,088,717	7 / 8
2026-09-26	$0.34	$942,088,717	7 / 8
2026-09-27	$0.34	$942,088,717	7 / 8
2026-09-28	$0.34	$942,088,717	7 / 8
2026-09-29	$0.34	$942,088,717	7 / 8
2026-09-30	$0.34	$942,088,717	7 / 8
2026-10-01	$0.34	$942,088,717	7 / 8
2026-10-02	$0.34	$942,088,717	7 / 8
2026-10-03	$0.34	$942,088,717	7 / 8
2026-10-04	$0.34	$942,088,717	7 / 8
2026-10-05	$0.34	$942,088,717	7 / 8
2026-10-06	$0.34	$942,088,717	7 / 8
2026-10-07	$0.34	$942,088,717	7 / 8
2026-10-08	$0.34	$942,088,717	7 / 8
2026-10-09	$0.34	$942,088,717	7 / 8
2026-10-10	$0.34	$942,088,717	7 / 8
2026-10-11	$0.34	$942,088,717	7 / 8
2026-10-12	$0.34	$942,088,717	7 / 8
2026-10-13	$0.34	$942,088,717	7 / 8
2026-10-14	$0.34	$942,088,717	7 / 8
2026-10-15	$0.34	$942,088,717	7 / 8
2026-10-16	$0.34	$942,088,717	7 / 8
2026-10-17	$0.34	$942,088,717	7 / 8
2026-10-18	$0.32	$945,409,485	5 / 6
2026-10-19	$0.32	$945,409,485	5 / 6
2026-10-20	$0.32	$945,409,485	5 / 6
2026-10-21	$0.32	$945,409,485	5 / 6
2026-10-22	$0.32	$945,409,485	5 / 6
2026-10-23	$0.32	$945,409,485	5 / 6
2026-10-24	$0.32	$945,409,485	5 / 6

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	8	5	1
2026-06-01	8	4	1
2026-07-01	8	4	1
2026-08-01	9	4	2
2026-09-01	8	6	2
2026-10-01	2	6	2

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 6 Hold · 2 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Adjusted EBITDA reaches $18M to $20M in Q2 2026Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Management meets revenue growth target of 10%-12% YoY in Q2 2026Revenue growth: 10.45%
Revenue grows about 14% to $850M in 2026Revenue: $213.941M

Next proof point

Nov 4, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.4%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-57.0%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

ACV Auctions, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a growth-oriented business with a watch-stage multi-year view, not a proven durable compounder. Revenue is advancing, but the company remains loss-making and recent financial performance is weak.

What's priced into ACV Auctions, Inc.

ACVA is valued at a sizeable premium to peers, and the valuation model points to a meaningful gap between expectations and current conditions. Model confidence is low, so the premium is difficult to assess precisely; the evidence does not show a full stack of expensive valuation, weak performance, and turbulence already reflected in expectations.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, revenue growth and higher Marketplace and Service Revenue support progress, but Q2 Marketplace Units were approximately flat year over year. Guidance was reaffirmed as of August 10, while the company’s weak results and peers’ recent misses remain risks; management execution is also described as volatile.

What ACV Auctions, Inc. hinges on

Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on revenue growth translating into stronger unit activity and clearer progress in commercial accounts and wallet share. Guidance cuts would be a negative signal, while continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector bellwethers could support the business backdrop; misses or lower guidance from those peers could weaken it.