Aclaris Therapeutics, Inc. (ACRS)

NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-10-23

$3.75-2.09%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Aclaris Therapeutics, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	1.35M
EPS	—	-0.176
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	6.18M
EPS	—	-0.648
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	5.34M
EPS	—	-0.782

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
EPS loss narrows toward -$0.50 per share	A primary condition in Aclaris Therapeutics, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is EPS >= -0.50 USD per share.	Improving	EPS remains below -$0.50 per share in FY27	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Successful advancement of ATI-052 to Phase 2 asthma trial	Aclaris is advancing its pipeline with a Phase 2 asthma trial for ATI-052.	Improving	Failure to initiate or significant delay in Phase 2 trial for ATI-052	Phase 2 trial planned (qualitative) Company announced plans for Phase 2 asthma trial for ATI-052 in June 2026, reinforcing pipeline advancement. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue stabilizes or grows above -10% annually	A primary condition in Aclaris Therapeutics, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= -10% YoY revenue growth.	Improving	YoY revenue growth falls below -10% in FY27	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$-0.78

$-0.77 → $-0.78 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$0.01B

$0.01B → $0.01B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$-0.77	$5,842,667	8 / 8
2026-07-25	$-0.83	$5,358,400	9 / 10
2026-07-26	$-0.83	$5,358,400	9 / 10
2026-07-27	$-0.83	$5,358,400	9 / 10
2026-07-28	$-0.83	$5,358,400	9 / 10
2026-07-29	$-0.83	$5,358,400	9 / 10
2026-07-30	$-0.83	$5,358,400	9 / 10
2026-07-31	$-0.83	$5,358,400	9 / 10
2026-08-01	$-0.83	$5,358,400	9 / 10
2026-08-02	$-0.83	$5,358,400	9 / 10
2026-08-03	$-0.83	$5,358,400	9 / 10
2026-08-04	$-0.83	$5,358,400	9 / 10
2026-08-05	$-0.83	$5,358,400	9 / 10
2026-08-06	$-0.83	$5,358,400	9 / 10
2026-08-07	$-0.78	$5,842,667	8 / 8
2026-08-08	$-0.82	$5,358,400	9 / 10
2026-08-09	$-0.80	$5,211,600	10 / 10
2026-08-10	$-0.80	$5,211,600	10 / 10
2026-08-11	$-0.80	$5,211,600	10 / 10
2026-08-12	$-0.81	$5,181,600	10 / 10
2026-08-13	$-0.81	$5,181,600	10 / 10
2026-08-14	$-0.78	$5,842,667	8 / 8
2026-08-15	$-0.78	$5,842,667	9 / 8
2026-08-16	$-0.78	$5,842,667	9 / 8
2026-08-17	$-0.78	$5,842,667	9 / 8
2026-08-18	$-0.78	$5,842,667	9 / 8
2026-08-19	$-0.78	$5,842,667	9 / 8
2026-08-20	$-0.77	$5,646,222	9 / 8
2026-08-21	$-0.77	$5,646,222	9 / 8
2026-08-22	$-0.77	$5,646,222	9 / 8
2026-08-23	$-0.77	$5,646,222	9 / 8
2026-08-24	$-0.77	$5,646,222	9 / 8
2026-08-25	$-0.77	$5,646,222	9 / 8
2026-08-26	$-0.77	$5,646,222	9 / 8
2026-08-27	$-0.77	$5,646,222	9 / 8
2026-08-28	$-0.77	$5,646,222	9 / 8
2026-08-29	$-0.77	$5,646,222	9 / 8
2026-08-30	$-0.77	$5,646,222	9 / 8
2026-08-31	$-0.77	$5,646,222	9 / 8
2026-09-01	$-0.77	$5,646,222	9 / 8
2026-09-02	$-0.75	$5,771,600	9 / 8
2026-09-03	$-0.75	$5,771,600	9 / 9
2026-09-04	$-0.75	$5,771,600	9 / 9
2026-09-05	$-0.75	$5,771,600	9 / 9
2026-09-06	$-0.75	$5,771,600	9 / 9
2026-09-07	$-0.75	$5,771,600	9 / 9
2026-09-08	$-0.75	$5,771,600	9 / 9
2026-09-09	$-0.75	$5,771,600	9 / 9
2026-09-10	$-0.75	$5,771,600	9 / 9
2026-09-11	$-0.75	$5,771,600	9 / 9
2026-09-12	$-0.75	$5,771,600	9 / 9
2026-09-13	$-0.75	$5,771,600	9 / 9
2026-09-14	$-0.75	$5,771,600	9 / 9
2026-09-15	$-0.75	$5,771,600	9 / 9
2026-09-16	$-0.75	$5,771,600	9 / 9
2026-09-17	$-0.75	$5,771,600	9 / 9
2026-09-18	$-0.75	$5,771,600	9 / 9
2026-09-19	$-0.75	$5,771,600	9 / 9
2026-09-20	$-0.75	$5,771,600	9 / 9
2026-09-21	$-0.75	$5,771,600	9 / 9
2026-09-22	$-0.75	$5,771,600	9 / 9
2026-09-23	$-0.75	$5,771,600	9 / 9
2026-09-24	$-0.75	$5,771,600	9 / 9
2026-09-25	$-0.75	$5,771,600	9 / 9
2026-09-26	$-0.76	$5,771,600	9 / 9
2026-09-27	$-0.76	$5,771,600	9 / 9
2026-09-28	$-0.76	$5,771,600	9 / 9
2026-09-29	$-0.76	$5,771,600	9 / 9
2026-09-30	$-0.76	$5,771,600	9 / 9
2026-10-01	$-0.76	$5,771,600	9 / 9
2026-10-02	$-0.76	$5,771,600	9 / 9
2026-10-03	$-0.76	$5,771,600	9 / 9
2026-10-04	$-0.76	$5,771,600	9 / 9
2026-10-05	$-0.76	$5,771,600	9 / 9
2026-10-06	$-0.76	$5,771,600	9 / 9
2026-10-07	$-0.76	$5,771,600	9 / 9
2026-10-08	$-0.76	$5,771,600	9 / 9
2026-10-09	$-0.76	$5,771,600	9 / 9
2026-10-10	$-0.76	$5,771,600	9 / 9
2026-10-11	$-0.76	$5,771,600	9 / 9
2026-10-12	$-0.76	$5,771,600	9 / 9
2026-10-13	$-0.76	$5,771,600	9 / 9
2026-10-14	$-0.76	$5,771,600	9 / 9
2026-10-15	$-0.76	$5,771,600	9 / 9
2026-10-16	$-0.76	$5,771,600	9 / 9
2026-10-17	$-0.76	$5,771,600	9 / 9
2026-10-18	$-0.76	$5,771,600	9 / 9
2026-10-19	$-0.76	$5,771,600	9 / 9
2026-10-20	$-0.76	$5,771,600	9 / 9
2026-10-21	$-0.78	$5,337,818	9 / 9
2026-10-22	$-0.78	$5,337,818	9 / 9
2026-10-23	$-0.78	$5,337,818	9 / 9
2026-10-24	$-0.78	$5,337,818	9 / 9

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	9	1
2026-06-01	10	1
2026-07-01	10	1
2026-08-01	10	1
2026-09-01	11	1
2026-10-01	11	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 11 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

EPS loss narrows toward -$0.50 per shareDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Revenue stabilizes or grows above -10% annuallyDirect metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Nov 5, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

2 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

2.5%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-49.9%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Aclaris Therapeutics, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a speculative clinical-development story, not an established earnings compounder. The multi-year view is still intact but on watch: management is meeting key milestones, while recent financial performance remains weak and risk is elevated.

What's priced into Aclaris Therapeutics, Inc.

ACRS trades at a 7.13% premium to peers, with valuation driven by the potential value of its development programs rather than current profits. The model has low confidence, and the evidence says the expensive valuation is not matched by a broader expensive, weak, and turbulent setup; the expectations gap is 4.13.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, the company remains loss-making, but cash resources rose from late 2025 to mid-2026, and management says liquidity can fund operations through the end of 2028. ATI-052 trials and planned next steps are on schedule, while ATI-2138 is mixed; weak performance relative to industry peers and a 42% estimated miss probability make the next update important.

What Aclaris Therapeutics, Inc. hinges on

The multi-year thesis depends on clinical progress and whether cash remains sufficient to fund development through the stated horizon. Near term, a guidance cut would be a negative signal, while stronger results and guidance from healthcare bellwethers could support the sector backdrop; weakening jobs data could add pressure to cyclical healthcare names.