Arch Capital Group (ACGL)

NASDAQFinancialsInsurance - DiversifiedSnapshot 2026-10-15

$101.27+1.97%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Arch Capital Group’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.2%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

9.78 → 9.81 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 12 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 12 to 12; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

Three key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Maintain preferred share dividends at current levels	A supporting condition in Arch Capital Group's published investment case. The stated target is stable preferred dividends.	Intact	preferred dividends are cut or suspended	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Newly stated in 2 quarters (2026-Q1 and 2026-Q2). The Board declared dividends on 5.45% Non-Cumulative Preferred Shares, Series F, continuing the dividend payments. While no specific dividend amounts are disclosed, management has maintained this capital allocation priority consistently in the recent quarters. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Share repurchases of at least $798 million per quarter	A primary condition in Arch Capital Group's published investment case. The stated target is >=798 million USD per quarter.	Intact	quarterly share repurchases fall below 500 million USD	Required source inputs unavailable Cannot calculate Share repurchases from the available matching source inputs. Missing inputs are not treated as zero. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Underwriting income grows to at least $728 million by 2026-Q1	Arch Capital grows underwriting income strongly, from $417M in 2025-Q1 to $728M in 2026-Q1.	Improving	underwriting income falls below 600 million USD next year	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$9.81

$9.81 → $9.81 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$16.31B

$16.49B → $16.31B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$9.81	$16,492,124,000	20 / 5
2026-07-25	$9.81	$16,492,124,000	20 / 5
2026-07-26	$9.81	$16,492,124,000	20 / 5
2026-07-27	$9.83	$17,394,354,742	12 / 5
2026-07-28	$9.81	$16,492,124,000	20 / 5
2026-07-29	$9.81	$16,492,124,000	20 / 5
2026-07-30	$9.81	$16,492,124,000	20 / 5
2026-07-31	$9.78	$16,148,726,330	20 / 6
2026-08-01	$9.78	$16,148,726,330	20 / 6
2026-08-02	$9.77	$16,004,393,000	20 / 6
2026-08-03	$9.81	$17,011,847,260	12 / 5
2026-08-04	$9.77	$16,004,393,000	20 / 6
2026-08-05	$9.76	$15,858,943,000	20 / 6
2026-08-06	$9.76	$15,858,943,000	20 / 6
2026-08-07	$9.76	$15,858,943,000	20 / 6
2026-08-08	$9.79	$16,803,543,589	12 / 5
2026-08-09	$9.76	$15,858,943,000	20 / 6
2026-08-10	$9.76	$15,858,943,000	20 / 6
2026-08-11	$9.79	$16,803,543,589	12 / 5
2026-08-12	$9.79	$16,803,543,589	12 / 5
2026-08-13	$9.75	$15,955,756,710	20 / 7
2026-08-14	$9.79	$16,803,543,589	12 / 5
2026-08-15	$9.79	$16,803,543,589	12 / 6
2026-08-16	$9.79	$16,803,543,589	12 / 6
2026-08-17	$9.79	$16,803,543,589	12 / 6
2026-08-18	$9.79	$16,803,543,589	12 / 6
2026-08-19	$9.79	$16,803,543,589	12 / 6
2026-08-20	$9.79	$16,803,543,589	12 / 6
2026-08-21	$9.79	$16,723,068,683	12 / 6
2026-08-22	$9.79	$16,723,068,683	12 / 6
2026-08-23	$9.79	$16,723,068,683	12 / 6
2026-08-24	$9.79	$16,723,068,683	12 / 6
2026-08-25	$9.79	$16,723,068,683	12 / 6
2026-08-26	$9.79	$16,723,068,683	12 / 6
2026-08-27	$9.79	$16,723,068,683	12 / 6
2026-08-28	$9.79	$16,723,068,683	12 / 6
2026-08-29	$9.78	$16,723,068,683	12 / 6
2026-08-30	$9.78	$16,723,068,683	12 / 6
2026-08-31	$9.78	$16,723,068,683	12 / 6
2026-09-01	$9.78	$16,723,068,683	12 / 6
2026-09-02	$9.78	$16,723,068,683	12 / 6
2026-09-03	$9.78	$16,723,068,683	12 / 6
2026-09-04	$9.78	$16,723,068,683	12 / 6
2026-09-05	$9.78	$16,723,068,683	12 / 6
2026-09-06	$9.78	$16,723,068,683	12 / 6
2026-09-07	$9.78	$16,723,068,683	12 / 6
2026-09-08	$9.78	$16,723,068,683	12 / 6
2026-09-09	$9.78	$16,723,068,683	12 / 6
2026-09-10	$9.78	$16,723,068,683	12 / 6
2026-09-11	$9.78	$16,723,068,683	12 / 6
2026-09-12	$9.78	$16,723,068,683	12 / 6
2026-09-13	$9.78	$16,723,068,683	12 / 6
2026-09-14	$9.78	$16,723,068,683	12 / 6
2026-09-15	$9.78	$16,723,068,683	12 / 6
2026-09-16	$9.78	$16,723,068,683	12 / 6
2026-09-17	$9.78	$16,723,068,683	12 / 6
2026-09-18	$9.78	$16,723,068,683	12 / 6
2026-09-19	$9.78	$16,723,068,683	12 / 6
2026-09-20	$9.78	$16,644,294,169	12 / 7
2026-09-21	$9.78	$16,644,294,169	12 / 7
2026-09-22	$9.78	$16,644,294,169	12 / 7
2026-09-23	$9.78	$16,644,294,169	12 / 7
2026-09-24	$9.78	$16,644,294,169	12 / 7
2026-09-25	$9.78	$16,644,294,169	12 / 7
2026-09-26	$9.78	$16,644,294,169	12 / 7
2026-09-27	$9.78	$16,644,294,169	12 / 7
2026-09-28	$9.78	$16,644,294,169	12 / 7
2026-09-29	$9.78	$16,644,294,169	12 / 7
2026-09-30	$9.78	$16,644,294,169	12 / 7
2026-10-01	$9.78	$16,644,294,169	12 / 7
2026-10-02	$9.79	$16,645,551,938	12 / 6
2026-10-03	$9.79	$16,645,551,938	12 / 6
2026-10-04	$9.79	$16,645,551,938	12 / 6
2026-10-05	$9.79	$16,645,551,938	12 / 6
2026-10-06	$9.78	$16,628,131,017	12 / 6
2026-10-07	$9.77	$16,540,888,674	12 / 6
2026-10-08	$9.78	$16,540,888,674	12 / 6
2026-10-09	$9.78	$16,540,888,674	12 / 6
2026-10-10	$9.78	$16,540,888,674	12 / 6
2026-10-11	$9.79	$16,526,563,795	12 / 6
2026-10-12	$9.79	$16,526,563,795	12 / 6
2026-10-13	$9.80	$16,526,563,795	12 / 6
2026-10-14	$9.81	$16,526,966,181	12 / 6
2026-10-15	$9.81	$16,308,188,362	12 / 5

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	10	9	1
2026-06-01	10	9	1
2026-07-01	10	9	1
2026-08-01	10	9	1
2026-09-01	10	9	1
2026-10-01	10	10	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 10 Buy / Strong Buy · 10 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades1 downgrades6 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 7 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Morgan StanleyOct 13 · prior May 1

$105.00 → $100.00-4.8%

Cantor FitzgeraldOct 7 · prior Aug 3

$110.00 → $105.00-4.5%

Mizuho SecuritiesSep 16 · prior Jul 9

$104.00 → $100.00-3.8%

$0$60.50$121.00

0 raises · 3 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Maintain preferred share dividends at current levelsDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Share repurchases of at least $798 million per quarterRequired source inputs unavailable
Underwriting income grows to at least $728 million by 2026-Q1Direct metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Oct 27, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

0.8%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-14.1%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Arch Capital Group outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on disciplined underwriting and capital allocation. The current thesis state is intact, despite recent management changes and a medium confidence level.

What's priced into Arch Capital Group

The valuation is considered cheap compared to peers, with a notable expectations gap. The market seems to have priced in a justified valuation, reflecting low fragility in the current regime.

What the fundamentals likely do

Fundamentals are likely to remain strong due to robust earnings quality, although management execution has shown volatility. Recent performance has been solid, but there is a low miss risk to watch for, especially given the industry context.

What Arch Capital Group hinges on

The thesis hinges on management's ability to maintain disciplined underwriting and navigate sector challenges. Key forward scenarios include the impact of guidance changes and the performance of sector bellwethers like BRK-B and AIG.