Acadia Pharmaceuticals (ACAD)

Q: What's priced into Acadia Pharmaceuticals (ACAD) stock?

ACAD trades at a 2.16-times premium to peers, while the evidence rates its value as neutral and the model has low confidence. The priced-in tag is justified, with no fragility gates triggered, but the negative expectations gap suggests the market may be allowing for weaker outcomes than the model assumes.

Q: What does the Acadia Pharmaceuticals (ACAD) outlook hinge on?

A favorable scenario would be a guidance increase next quarter after the earlier cut, alongside continued DAYBUE growth and supportive results from healthcare peers. The main downside risks are weakening employment data that could weigh on healthcare names, continued peer misses, and any setbacks in clinical development or execution.

NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-10-23

$19.73-2.86%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Acadia Pharmaceuticals’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+2.4%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

0.92 → 0.94 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 12 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 13 to 12; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	361.68M
EPS	—	0.226
FY 2026 · Annual
DAYBUE product revenue	$460M–$490M	—
NUPLAZID product revenue	$760M–$790M	—
Revenue	$1.22B–$1.28B	1.27B
EPS	—	0.623
R&D	$385M–$410M	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	1.43B
EPS	—	0.938

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Positive regulatory reviews and approvals	Positive EU drug reviews support future sales.	Under Pressure	Negative regulatory decisions or loss of approvals	Regulatory approval stalled; Phase 3 trial results mixed/negative FDA Fast Track designation (Jul) followed by negative Phase 3 trial results (Sep) causing stock drop and analyst downgrades. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Full year revenue near $1.28 billion in 2026	Management aims for revenue near $1.28 billion in 2026.	Intact	Annual revenue falls below $1.22 billion in FY26	Revenue: $307.959M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $1.22 billion and <= $1.28 billion. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 5, 2026307,959,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 391fd952-4ad6-4c0d-be03-b26aea3a4dfa. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Reaffirmed or increased full year 2026 revenue guidance in 3 of last 3 quarters, from $1.22-$1.28 billion in 2025-Q4 and 2026-Q1 to $1.24-$1.30 billion in 2026-Q2. Actual revenues grew from $284 million in 2025-Q4 to $308 million in 2026-Q2 quarterly, supporting management's confidence. The trajectory matches management's stated guidance. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
SG&A expenses capped at $700 million in 2026	Costs are controlled with SG&A capped at $700 million.	Intact	SG&A expenses exceed $700 million in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$0.94

$0.85 → $0.94 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$1.43B

$1.40B → $1.43B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$0.85	$1,400,559,210	13 / 21
2026-07-25	$0.85	$1,400,559,210	13 / 21
2026-07-26	$0.85	$1,400,559,210	13 / 21
2026-07-27	$0.85	$1,400,559,210	13 / 21
2026-07-28	$0.85	$1,400,559,210	13 / 21
2026-07-29	$0.85	$1,400,559,210	13 / 21
2026-07-30	$0.85	$1,400,559,210	13 / 21
2026-07-31	$0.83	$1,400,552,683	13 / 16
2026-08-01	$0.85	$1,400,559,210	13 / 21
2026-08-02	$0.85	$1,400,559,210	13 / 21
2026-08-03	$0.85	$1,400,559,210	13 / 21
2026-08-04	$0.85	$1,400,559,210	13 / 21
2026-08-05	$0.83	$1,400,552,683	13 / 16
2026-08-06	$0.83	$1,400,552,683	13 / 16
2026-08-07	$0.89	$1,430,248,860	14 / 20
2026-08-08	$0.89	$1,430,248,860	14 / 20
2026-08-09	$0.89	$1,430,248,860	14 / 20
2026-08-10	$0.89	$1,430,248,860	14 / 20
2026-08-11	$0.88	$1,430,248,860	14 / 20
2026-08-12	$0.90	$1,429,920,650	14 / 20
2026-08-13	$0.92	$1,428,818,723	13 / 16
2026-08-14	$0.92	$1,428,818,723	13 / 16
2026-08-15	$0.92	$1,428,818,723	13 / 15
2026-08-16	$0.92	$1,428,818,723	13 / 15
2026-08-17	$0.92	$1,428,818,723	13 / 15
2026-08-18	$0.92	$1,428,818,723	13 / 15
2026-08-19	$0.92	$1,428,818,723	13 / 15
2026-08-20	$0.91	$1,431,361,805	13 / 15
2026-08-21	$0.91	$1,431,361,805	13 / 15
2026-08-22	$0.91	$1,431,361,805	13 / 15
2026-08-23	$0.91	$1,431,361,805	13 / 15
2026-08-24	$0.91	$1,431,361,805	13 / 15
2026-08-25	$0.91	$1,432,832,496	13 / 15
2026-08-26	$0.91	$1,433,157,072	13 / 15
2026-08-27	$0.91	$1,433,157,072	13 / 15
2026-08-28	$0.91	$1,433,157,072	13 / 15
2026-08-29	$0.91	$1,433,157,072	13 / 15
2026-08-30	$0.91	$1,433,157,072	13 / 15
2026-08-31	$0.91	$1,433,157,072	13 / 15
2026-09-01	$0.91	$1,433,157,072	13 / 15
2026-09-02	$0.91	$1,433,157,072	13 / 15
2026-09-03	$0.91	$1,433,157,072	13 / 15
2026-09-04	$0.91	$1,433,157,072	13 / 15
2026-09-05	$0.91	$1,433,157,072	13 / 15
2026-09-06	$0.91	$1,433,157,072	13 / 15
2026-09-07	$0.91	$1,433,157,072	13 / 15
2026-09-08	$0.91	$1,433,157,072	13 / 15
2026-09-09	$0.91	$1,433,157,072	13 / 15
2026-09-10	$0.91	$1,433,157,072	13 / 15
2026-09-11	$0.91	$1,433,157,072	13 / 15
2026-09-12	$0.91	$1,433,157,072	13 / 15
2026-09-13	$0.91	$1,433,157,072	13 / 15
2026-09-14	$0.91	$1,433,157,072	13 / 15
2026-09-15	$0.91	$1,433,157,072	13 / 15
2026-09-16	$0.91	$1,433,157,072	13 / 15
2026-09-17	$0.92	$1,433,239,023	13 / 15
2026-09-18	$0.92	$1,433,239,023	13 / 15
2026-09-19	$0.92	$1,433,239,023	13 / 15
2026-09-20	$0.92	$1,433,239,023	13 / 14
2026-09-21	$0.92	$1,433,239,023	13 / 14
2026-09-22	$0.92	$1,433,239,023	13 / 14
2026-09-23	$0.92	$1,433,245,928	13 / 14
2026-09-24	$0.92	$1,433,245,928	13 / 14
2026-09-25	$0.93	$1,432,830,296	13 / 14
2026-09-26	$0.93	$1,432,624,496	13 / 14
2026-09-27	$0.93	$1,432,624,496	13 / 14
2026-09-28	$0.93	$1,432,624,496	13 / 14
2026-09-29	$0.93	$1,432,624,496	13 / 14
2026-09-30	$0.93	$1,432,624,496	13 / 14
2026-10-01	$0.93	$1,432,624,496	13 / 14
2026-10-02	$0.93	$1,432,624,496	13 / 14
2026-10-03	$0.93	$1,432,624,496	13 / 14
2026-10-04	$0.93	$1,432,624,496	13 / 14
2026-10-05	$0.93	$1,432,624,496	13 / 14
2026-10-06	$0.93	$1,432,624,496	13 / 14
2026-10-07	$0.93	$1,432,624,496	13 / 14
2026-10-08	$0.93	$1,432,624,496	13 / 14
2026-10-09	$0.93	$1,432,640,286	13 / 14
2026-10-10	$0.93	$1,432,640,286	13 / 14
2026-10-11	$0.93	$1,433,009,544	13 / 14
2026-10-12	$0.93	$1,433,009,544	13 / 14
2026-10-13	$0.93	$1,433,292,965	13 / 14
2026-10-14	$0.93	$1,433,292,965	13 / 14
2026-10-15	$0.93	$1,433,292,965	13 / 14
2026-10-16	$0.94	$1,433,375,281	12 / 14
2026-10-17	$0.94	$1,433,375,281	12 / 14
2026-10-18	$0.94	$1,433,375,281	12 / 14
2026-10-19	$0.94	$1,433,375,281	12 / 14
2026-10-20	$0.94	$1,433,375,281	12 / 14
2026-10-21	$0.94	$1,433,480,544	12 / 14
2026-10-22	$0.94	$1,433,480,544	12 / 14
2026-10-23	$0.94	$1,433,480,544	12 / 14
2026-10-24	$0.94	$1,433,480,544	12 / 14

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	16	4	1
2026-06-01	16	4	1
2026-07-01	16	4	1
2026-08-01	16	4	1
2026-09-01	16	4	1
2026-10-01	15	5	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 15 Buy / Strong Buy · 5 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades1 downgrades7 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 8 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

UBSOct 13 · prior Aug 17

$49.00 → $23.00-53.1%

William BlairSep 28

$33.00New observation · no comparable prior

NeedhamSep 25 · prior Aug 12

$41.00 → $35.00-14.6%

H.C. WainwrightSep 25

$33.00New observation · no comparable prior

Deutsche BankSep 25 · prior Aug 25

$38.00 → $31.00-18.4%

BMO CapitalSep 25 · prior Jul 21

$36.00 → $34.00-5.6%

$0$26.95$53.90

0 raises · 4 cuts · 0 unchanged · 2 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Positive regulatory reviews and approvalsPublished status: Under Pressure
Full year revenue near $1.28 billion in 2026Revenue: $307.959M
SG&A expenses capped at $700 million in 2026Direct metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Nov 4, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.3%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-39.1%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Acadia Pharmaceuticals outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a growth-focused biotechnology business, not a proven profit compounder, since it remains loss-making. The 1-to-3-year thesis is intact: DAYBUE is growing and recent financial performance is strong, while development progress and execution still need to support the case.

What's priced into Acadia Pharmaceuticals

ACAD trades at a 2.16-times premium to peers, while the evidence rates its value as neutral and the model has low confidence. The priced-in tag is justified, with no fragility gates triggered, but the negative expectations gap suggests the market may be allowing for weaker outcomes than the model assumes.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, DAYBUE sales growth and higher 2026 revenue guidance support the operating picture, while management’s priorities on DAYBUE and guidance are on track. Remlifanserin’s September results support continued Phase 3 work, though that priority is rated mixed; ACAD remains loss-making, and the next report carries a stated watch risk amid recent peer misses.

What Acadia Pharmaceuticals hinges on

A favorable scenario would be a guidance increase next quarter after the earlier cut, alongside continued DAYBUE growth and supportive results from healthcare peers. The main downside risks are weakening employment data that could weigh on healthcare names, continued peer misses, and any setbacks in clinical development or execution.

Bottom line

Over the next 1 to 3 years, the long-term thesis rests on sustained DAYBUE growth and disciplined execution, with clinical progress adding uncertainty rather than proof of a durable second growth engine. Recent business performance keeps the thesis intact, but losses, valuation relative to peers, and near-term reporting risk remain important. Not investment advice.

Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	361.68M
EPS	—	0.226
FY 2026 · Annual
DAYBUE product revenue	$460M–$490M	—
NUPLAZID product revenue	$760M–$790M	—
Revenue	$1.22B–$1.28B	1.27B
EPS	—	0.623
R&D	$385M–$410M	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	1.43B
EPS	—	0.938

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$0.94

$0.85 → $0.94 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$1.43B

$1.40B → $1.43B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$0.85	$1,400,559,210	13 / 21
2026-07-25	$0.85	$1,400,559,210	13 / 21
2026-07-26	$0.85	$1,400,559,210	13 / 21
2026-07-27	$0.85	$1,400,559,210	13 / 21
2026-07-28	$0.85	$1,400,559,210	13 / 21
2026-07-29	$0.85	$1,400,559,210	13 / 21
2026-07-30	$0.85	$1,400,559,210	13 / 21
2026-07-31	$0.83	$1,400,552,683	13 / 16
2026-08-01	$0.85	$1,400,559,210	13 / 21
2026-08-02	$0.85	$1,400,559,210	13 / 21
2026-08-03	$0.85	$1,400,559,210	13 / 21
2026-08-04	$0.85	$1,400,559,210	13 / 21
2026-08-05	$0.83	$1,400,552,683	13 / 16
2026-08-06	$0.83	$1,400,552,683	13 / 16
2026-08-07	$0.89	$1,430,248,860	14 / 20
2026-08-08	$0.89	$1,430,248,860	14 / 20
2026-08-09	$0.89	$1,430,248,860	14 / 20
2026-08-10	$0.89	$1,430,248,860	14 / 20
2026-08-11	$0.88	$1,430,248,860	14 / 20
2026-08-12	$0.90	$1,429,920,650	14 / 20
2026-08-13	$0.92	$1,428,818,723	13 / 16
2026-08-14	$0.92	$1,428,818,723	13 / 16
2026-08-15	$0.92	$1,428,818,723	13 / 15
2026-08-16	$0.92	$1,428,818,723	13 / 15
2026-08-17	$0.92	$1,428,818,723	13 / 15
2026-08-18	$0.92	$1,428,818,723	13 / 15
2026-08-19	$0.92	$1,428,818,723	13 / 15
2026-08-20	$0.91	$1,431,361,805	13 / 15
2026-08-21	$0.91	$1,431,361,805	13 / 15
2026-08-22	$0.91	$1,431,361,805	13 / 15
2026-08-23	$0.91	$1,431,361,805	13 / 15
2026-08-24	$0.91	$1,431,361,805	13 / 15
2026-08-25	$0.91	$1,432,832,496	13 / 15
2026-08-26	$0.91	$1,433,157,072	13 / 15
2026-08-27	$0.91	$1,433,157,072	13 / 15
2026-08-28	$0.91	$1,433,157,072	13 / 15
2026-08-29	$0.91	$1,433,157,072	13 / 15
2026-08-30	$0.91	$1,433,157,072	13 / 15
2026-08-31	$0.91	$1,433,157,072	13 / 15
2026-09-01	$0.91	$1,433,157,072	13 / 15
2026-09-02	$0.91	$1,433,157,072	13 / 15
2026-09-03	$0.91	$1,433,157,072	13 / 15
2026-09-04	$0.91	$1,433,157,072	13 / 15
2026-09-05	$0.91	$1,433,157,072	13 / 15
2026-09-06	$0.91	$1,433,157,072	13 / 15
2026-09-07	$0.91	$1,433,157,072	13 / 15
2026-09-08	$0.91	$1,433,157,072	13 / 15
2026-09-09	$0.91	$1,433,157,072	13 / 15
2026-09-10	$0.91	$1,433,157,072	13 / 15
2026-09-11	$0.91	$1,433,157,072	13 / 15
2026-09-12	$0.91	$1,433,157,072	13 / 15
2026-09-13	$0.91	$1,433,157,072	13 / 15
2026-09-14	$0.91	$1,433,157,072	13 / 15
2026-09-15	$0.91	$1,433,157,072	13 / 15
2026-09-16	$0.91	$1,433,157,072	13 / 15
2026-09-17	$0.92	$1,433,239,023	13 / 15
2026-09-18	$0.92	$1,433,239,023	13 / 15
2026-09-19	$0.92	$1,433,239,023	13 / 15
2026-09-20	$0.92	$1,433,239,023	13 / 14
2026-09-21	$0.92	$1,433,239,023	13 / 14
2026-09-22	$0.92	$1,433,239,023	13 / 14
2026-09-23	$0.92	$1,433,245,928	13 / 14
2026-09-24	$0.92	$1,433,245,928	13 / 14
2026-09-25	$0.93	$1,432,830,296	13 / 14
2026-09-26	$0.93	$1,432,624,496	13 / 14
2026-09-27	$0.93	$1,432,624,496	13 / 14
2026-09-28	$0.93	$1,432,624,496	13 / 14
2026-09-29	$0.93	$1,432,624,496	13 / 14
2026-09-30	$0.93	$1,432,624,496	13 / 14
2026-10-01	$0.93	$1,432,624,496	13 / 14
2026-10-02	$0.93	$1,432,624,496	13 / 14
2026-10-03	$0.93	$1,432,624,496	13 / 14
2026-10-04	$0.93	$1,432,624,496	13 / 14
2026-10-05	$0.93	$1,432,624,496	13 / 14
2026-10-06	$0.93	$1,432,624,496	13 / 14
2026-10-07	$0.93	$1,432,624,496	13 / 14
2026-10-08	$0.93	$1,432,624,496	13 / 14
2026-10-09	$0.93	$1,432,640,286	13 / 14
2026-10-10	$0.93	$1,432,640,286	13 / 14
2026-10-11	$0.93	$1,433,009,544	13 / 14
2026-10-12	$0.93	$1,433,009,544	13 / 14
2026-10-13	$0.93	$1,433,292,965	13 / 14
2026-10-14	$0.93	$1,433,292,965	13 / 14
2026-10-15	$0.93	$1,433,292,965	13 / 14
2026-10-16	$0.94	$1,433,375,281	12 / 14
2026-10-17	$0.94	$1,433,375,281	12 / 14
2026-10-18	$0.94	$1,433,375,281	12 / 14
2026-10-19	$0.94	$1,433,375,281	12 / 14
2026-10-20	$0.94	$1,433,375,281	12 / 14
2026-10-21	$0.94	$1,433,480,544	12 / 14
2026-10-22	$0.94	$1,433,480,544	12 / 14
2026-10-23	$0.94	$1,433,480,544	12 / 14
2026-10-24	$0.94	$1,433,480,544	12 / 14

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings