AbbVie (ABBV)

NYSEHealth CareDrug Manufacturers - GeneralSnapshot 2026-10-15

$285.42+0.71%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge AbbVie’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.1%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

16.37 → 16.38 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 14 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 14 to 14; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

4 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Invest at least $1.78 billion in manufacturing and R&D in 2026	The company invests $1.4 billion in manufacturing and expands its drug pipeline.	Intact	Capital investments fall significantly below $1.78 billion in 2026	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 6 quarters. AbbVie announced a $1.4B investment in a pharmaceutical manufacturing campus in Durham, NC in 2026-Q1 and a $380M investment in API manufacturing facilities in North Chicago in 2025-Q4. These investments support growth in immunology, neuroscience, and oncology. The trajectory shows active capital deployment in manufacturing and R&D infrastructure. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Increase quarterly dividend to at least $1.73 per share	A supporting condition in AbbVie's published investment case. The stated target is >=1.73 USD per share quarterly.	Intact	Dividend per share falls below $1.64 or is cut	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Increase adjusted diluted EPS to at least $14.28 in 2026	A primary condition in AbbVie's published investment case. The stated target is >=14.28 USD per share.	Broken	adjusted diluted EPS falls below $13.96 in 2026	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 5 of last 6 quarters. AbbVie raised its adjusted diluted EPS guidance from $10.38-$10.58 in 2025-Q3 to $13.87-$14.07 in 2026-Q2, reflecting strong operational performance and pipeline progress. The trajectory shows consistent upward revisions in guidance aligned with reported results. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Advance pipeline and secure regulatory approvals for key drugs	A primary condition in AbbVie's published investment case. The stated target is Maintain steady regulatory approvals and milestones progress in 2026.	Intact	Significant regulatory setbacks or failure to advance key drugs like Skyrizi, Rinvoq, or Epkinly	Qualitative: 2 Breakthrough Designations & Positive Phase 2 Data FDA breakthrough designations for Temab-A; positive Phase 2 results for Zumilokibart; Genmab combo success; analyst upgrades on pipeline strength. Context reviewed through Oct 15, 2026Last status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$16.38

$16.28 → $16.38 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$73.50B

$72.82B → $73.50B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$16.28	$72,819,028,100	25 / 24
2026-07-25	$16.27	$72,836,420,630	24 / 23
2026-07-26	$16.27	$72,836,420,630	24 / 23
2026-07-27	$16.44	$72,845,320,768	14 / 18
2026-07-28	$16.29	$72,838,594,540	24 / 23
2026-07-29	$16.30	$72,858,638,020	24 / 23
2026-07-30	$16.30	$72,858,638,020	24 / 23
2026-07-31	$16.30	$72,858,638,020	24 / 23
2026-08-01	$16.46	$72,885,080,768	14 / 18
2026-08-02	$16.29	$73,092,860,290	24 / 23
2026-08-03	$16.29	$73,092,860,290	24 / 23
2026-08-04	$16.32	$73,015,219,820	17 / 16
2026-08-05	$16.36	$73,068,234,480	16 / 15
2026-08-06	$16.36	$73,068,234,480	16 / 15
2026-08-07	$16.33	$73,698,746,730	20 / 19
2026-08-08	$16.49	$73,160,003,859	14 / 18
2026-08-09	$16.31	$73,641,059,390	22 / 20
2026-08-10	$16.31	$73,641,059,390	22 / 20
2026-08-11	$16.49	$73,160,003,859	14 / 18
2026-08-12	$16.26	$73,510,931,770	23 / 21
2026-08-13	$16.26	$73,510,931,770	23 / 21
2026-08-14	$16.49	$73,160,003,859	14 / 18
2026-08-15	$16.49	$73,160,003,859	14 / 17
2026-08-16	$16.49	$73,160,003,859	14 / 17
2026-08-17	$16.49	$73,160,003,859	14 / 17
2026-08-18	$16.49	$73,160,003,859	14 / 17
2026-08-19	$16.49	$73,160,003,859	14 / 17
2026-08-20	$16.49	$73,160,003,859	14 / 17
2026-08-21	$16.32	$73,407,116,214	14 / 17
2026-08-22	$16.32	$73,407,116,214	14 / 17
2026-08-23	$16.32	$73,407,116,214	14 / 16
2026-08-24	$16.32	$73,407,116,214	14 / 16
2026-08-25	$16.32	$73,407,116,214	14 / 16
2026-08-26	$16.32	$73,407,116,214	14 / 16
2026-08-27	$16.32	$73,407,116,214	14 / 16
2026-08-28	$16.32	$73,407,116,214	14 / 16
2026-08-29	$16.32	$73,407,116,214	14 / 16
2026-08-30	$16.32	$73,407,116,214	14 / 16
2026-08-31	$16.32	$73,407,116,214	14 / 16
2026-09-01	$16.32	$73,407,116,214	14 / 16
2026-09-02	$16.32	$73,407,116,214	14 / 16
2026-09-03	$16.32	$73,349,992,214	14 / 16
2026-09-04	$16.32	$73,349,992,214	14 / 16
2026-09-05	$16.32	$73,349,992,214	14 / 16
2026-09-06	$16.32	$73,349,992,214	14 / 16
2026-09-07	$16.32	$73,349,992,214	14 / 16
2026-09-08	$16.32	$73,349,992,214	14 / 16
2026-09-09	$16.32	$73,349,992,214	14 / 16
2026-09-10	$16.32	$73,350,012,214	14 / 16
2026-09-11	$16.37	$73,407,237,038	14 / 16
2026-09-12	$16.37	$73,407,997,038	14 / 17
2026-09-13	$16.37	$73,407,997,038	14 / 17
2026-09-14	$16.37	$73,407,997,038	14 / 17
2026-09-15	$16.37	$73,407,997,038	14 / 17
2026-09-16	$16.37	$73,407,997,038	14 / 17
2026-09-17	$16.37	$73,407,996,746	14 / 17
2026-09-18	$16.37	$73,407,996,746	14 / 17
2026-09-19	$16.37	$73,407,996,746	14 / 17
2026-09-20	$16.37	$73,407,976,746	15 / 17
2026-09-21	$16.37	$73,407,976,746	15 / 17
2026-09-22	$16.37	$73,407,997,038	15 / 17
2026-09-23	$16.41	$73,407,997,038	15 / 17
2026-09-24	$16.41	$73,407,997,038	15 / 17
2026-09-25	$16.41	$73,407,997,038	15 / 17
2026-09-26	$16.41	$73,408,009,644	15 / 17
2026-09-27	$16.41	$73,408,009,644	15 / 17
2026-09-28	$16.41	$73,408,009,644	15 / 17
2026-09-29	$16.43	$73,412,293,351	14 / 17
2026-09-30	$16.43	$73,412,117,663	15 / 17
2026-10-01	$16.43	$73,412,117,956	15 / 17
2026-10-02	$16.43	$73,412,117,956	15 / 17
2026-10-03	$16.43	$73,412,117,956	15 / 17
2026-10-04	$16.43	$73,412,117,956	15 / 17
2026-10-05	$16.43	$73,412,117,956	15 / 17
2026-10-06	$16.43	$73,411,997,956	15 / 17
2026-10-07	$16.44	$73,412,013,956	15 / 17
2026-10-08	$16.45	$73,435,948,763	15 / 18
2026-10-09	$16.43	$73,457,856,157	15 / 18
2026-10-10	$16.43	$73,457,856,157	15 / 18
2026-10-11	$16.40	$73,449,167,002	15 / 17
2026-10-12	$16.40	$73,449,167,002	15 / 17
2026-10-13	$16.39	$73,471,507,238	15 / 17
2026-10-14	$16.38	$73,499,218,262	15 / 17
2026-10-15	$16.38	$73,502,989,970	14 / 16

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	24	9	0
2026-06-01	24	8	1
2026-07-01	24	6	1
2026-08-01	25	6	1
2026-09-01	25	5	1
2026-10-01	24	5	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 24 Buy / Strong Buy · 5 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades7 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 7 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Cantor FitzgeraldOct 8 · prior Jul 6

$265.00 → $290.00+9.4%

Morgan StanleyOct 7 · prior Aug 3

$296.00 → $310.00+4.7%

ScotiabankOct 6

$320.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$176.00$352.00

2 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Invest at least $1.78 billion in manufacturing and R&D in 2026Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Increase quarterly dividend to at least $1.73 per shareDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Increase adjusted diluted EPS to at least $14.28 in 2026Published status: Broken

Next proof point

Oct 30, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

0.9%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-15.7%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

AbbVie outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on immunology and a commitment to dividend growth. The current thesis state is intact, supported by strong recent financial performance and a robust earnings quality.

What's priced into AbbVie

The market appears to have priced in a justified valuation, with expectations closely aligned to recent performance. ABBV trades at a premium compared to peers, indicating that some growth is already expected.

What the fundamentals likely do

Management is focused on advancing its immunology portfolio and maintaining dividend payouts, which have shown consistent growth. However, the management of expenses related to acquisitions remains mixed, posing some risk to earnings.

What AbbVie hinges on

Key factors include the potential for ABBV to raise guidance in the next quarter, the performance of sector leaders like LLY and JNJ, and broader economic indicators such as job growth. Any shifts in these areas could significantly impact ABBV's trajectory.