Micron Technology (MU)

NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-10-16

$878.84-5.63%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Published Living FV report summary

MU conditional business value

This summary shows published values and their evidence and input disclosures. Expand the evidence sections below to inspect the complete published assumptions and monitoring records.

partial source scope coverage · Financial evidence: questionable · Scope: explicit source sample

Values are USD per common share, conditional on the published operating, funding and return assumptions. A scenario range is not a probability or confidence interval.

Swipe or scroll horizontally to compare Low, Base and High. Keyboard users can focus the table and use the arrow keys.

Published conditional value ranges in USD per common share
Business scope	Bear (Low)	Base	Bull (High)
Value of today’s operating business Current reported operating scale, with the stated tax, funding and return assumptions.	$709.42	$709.42	$709.42
Value including the business growth plan The whole company forecast, including initiative effects and the investment needed to deliver them.	$691.76	$2,119.54	$4,045.09

Valuation date: 2026-10-13
Reported financial opening date: 2026-09-03
Report input as of: 2026-10-13T18:25:25.249568+00:00
Narrative source cutoff: 2026-10-13T18:16:28.548048+00:00
Report published: 2026-10-13T19:54:59.381572+00:00

Following: current · Continuing updates: awaiting current update receipt.

5528 of 5768 published forecast outcomes remain unknown. Publication does not establish forecast accuracy or complete evidence.

Assumptions, estimates and uncertainty

These values depend on modeled operations, growth, funding and required return. Company estimates and any disclosed proxy inputs are assumptions, not newly observed company facts. The scenario range does not measure the chance of an outcome.

Published accounting estimates: 3 disclosed
Published financing assumptions: 0 entries supplied
Required equity return: 10.85%
Sensitivity cases: 3 entries; unavailable cases remain visible below

Published base-scenario operating assumptions

These are model inputs for the published base case. All scenario paths and all source references remain in the published operating phases below.

Years 1–1
Annual revenue growth: 112.86% · Operating margin: 83.04%
Input origin: source reconciled analyst estimate
Years 2–2
Annual revenue growth: 21.69% · Operating margin: 80.38%
Input origin: source reconciled analyst estimate
Years 3–3
Annual revenue growth: 13.04% · Operating margin: 74.28%
Input origin: source reconciled analyst estimate
Years 4–4
Annual revenue growth: 8.97% · Operating margin: 69.12%
Input origin: source reconciled analyst estimate
Years 5–5
Annual revenue growth: 7.06% · Operating margin: 64.04%
Input origin: source reconciled analyst estimate
Years 6–6
Annual revenue growth: 5.49% · Operating margin: 60.83%
Input origin: source reconciled analyst estimate

Evidence and model limitations

Historical interest over closing claims is a dated financing-rate estimate; maturity/refinancing and cash-payment timing may differ.
Operating-lease discount rate is carried or proxied; retain source age.
Future cash yield equals dated Treasury as a declared estimate; financing rates and share balances are fixed absent explicit schedules.
Reported balances are carried, with any source-bound cash issuance applied separately to dated value; other interim balance movements are unobserved.
Mature profitability, growth duration and future investment are company estimates, not guarantees.
Source inventory/extraction coverage and historical data quality remain separate from calculation completion.
Empirical range uses the completed annual calibration source family; conditional transfer, not total FV probability.
Negative donor residuals remain visible; fixed-financing stress results are not negative tradable share prices.
Current reported FY2026 revenue is the common funding reference; forecast first-year revenue is independently bridged from Q1 guidance and conditional later quarters.
Annual operating forecasts are conditional model estimates informed by dated disclosures, not issuer guidance. The equation, annual dates and mature-state settings are retained.
Gross modeled common-cash contributions before the separately valued post-opening cash issuance: LOW 0.00 billion USD; BASE 0.00 billion USD; HIGH 0.00 billion USD. This is a reported-opening cash-path diagnostic, not a claim that financing is secured or a net unfunded balance. Timing, other cash uses and financing terms remain uncertain; do not deduct it again from fair value.

Source coverage and unresolved evidence

Coverage

Status

PARTIAL_SOURCE_SCOPE

Scope

EXPLICIT_SOURCE_SAMPLE

Financial

QUESTIONABLE

Narrative source profile

Cutoff: 2026-10-13T18:16:28.548048+00:00
Mode: CURRENT_FISCAL_DESK
Basis: Latest released annual and all subsequent/recent filings, calls and linked news over at least one full year. Older narrative interpretation is outside this initial valuation scope; numerical history is retained.
Version: living_fv_narrative_coverage_profile_v1
Scope start: 2025-10-03
Numerical history preserved: Yes
Deferred periodic accessions: 0000723125-16-000146
0000723125-16-000176
0000723125-16-000201
0000723125-16-000220
0000723125-16-000269
0000723125-17-000005
0000723125-17-000037
0000723125-17-000085
0000723125-17-000131
0000723125-17-000166
0000723125-18-000036
0000723125-18-000065
0000723125-18-000092
0000723125-18-000156

Accounting estimates, financing and sensitivity cases

Input disclosures

Estimated inputs

Unit
USD
Basis
FY2026 consolidated balance sheet lists common equity only, with no separate preferred or noncontrolling claim. Explicit estimate, renewed for this period.
Field
noncommon_claims
Label
Noncommon claims
Value
0
Period
End
2026-09-03
Start
Not supplied
Status
ESTIMATED
Unit
USD
Basis
Explicit estimate carries the previous selected 722M total, itself 68M earlier current component plus 654M May-2026 noncurrent component. FY2026 note says operating leases are not material and gives no fresh total. This is not a newly reported balance; quantify sensitivity.
Field
operating_leases
Label
Operating leases
Value
722000000
Period

Dated share basis

Share basis: PERIOD_END_REPORTED_COMMON_FIXED_FUTURE_CASH_SBC

Required return and its source policy

Equity return

0.10851687078918749890912030602989453109683776685936

Equity return policy

Basis: Solve central funded intrinsic capital, then hold the resulting equity rate across paired and empirical operating comparisons.
Method: INTRINSIC_CAPITAL_FIXED_POINT

Published operating phases

{
  "phases": [
    {
      "fields": [
        {
          "key": "revenue_growth",
          "unit": "FRACTION",
          "label": "Annual revenue growth",
          "value": "0.4265549448899300237258611886956782893353755593597"
        },
        {
          "key": "operating_margin",
          "unit": "FRACTION",
          "label": "Operating profit margin",
          "value": "0.64847368421052631578947368421052631578947368421053"
        },
        {
          "key": "cash_tax_rate",
          "unit": "FRACTION",
          "label": "Cash tax rate",
          "value": "0.15"
        },
        {
          "key": "net_ppe_investment_ratio",
          "unit": "FRACTION",
          "label": "Net investment in property and equipment / revenue",
          "value": "0.22105263157894736842105263157894736842105263157895"
        },
        {
          "key": "working_capital_investment_ratio",
          "unit": "FRACTION",
          "label": "Working capital investment / revenue",
          "value": "0.05"
        },
        {
          "key": "cash_reserve_per_added_revenue",
          "unit": "FRACTION",
          "label": "Cash held for each additional dollar of revenue",
          "value": "0.10"
        },
        {
          "key": "years",
          "unit": "YEARS",
          "label": "Years in this phase",
          "value": 1
        }
      ],
      "origin": "SOURCE_RECONCILED_ANALYST_ESTIMATE",
      "scenario": "LOW",
      "from_year": 1,
      "phase_index": 0,
      "evidence_ids": [
        "Q4_RELEASE",
        "Q4_REMARKS",
        "FY26_10K",
        "POST_EARNINGS_QA"
      ],
      "setting_rule": "Conditional annual operating estimate for 2027-09-03; cited disclosures inform the assumptions but do not guarantee these forecast amounts.",
      "through_year": 1,
      "capital_components": {
        "method": "EXPLICIT_ANNUAL_CASH_BUDGET_BY_PHASE",
        "origin": "SOURCE_RECONCILED_ANALYST_ESTIMATE",
        "rationale": "Conditional annual operating estimate for 2027-09-03; cited disclosures inform the assumptions but do not guarantee these forecast amounts.",
        "evidence_ids": [
          "Q4_RELEASE",
          "Q4_REMARKS",
          "FY26_10K",
          "POST_EARNINGS_QA"
        ],
        "annual_cash_capex": "60000000000",
        "capital_receipts_basis": "EXPLICIT_MODEL_FORECAST",
        "annual_depreciation_amortization": "13000000000",
        "annual_capital_incentive_receipts": "5000000000"
      }
    },
    {
      "fields": [
        {
          "key": "revenue_growth",
          "unit": "FRACTION",
          "label": "Annual revenue growth",
          "value": "-0.26315789473684210526315789473684210526315789473684"
        },
        {
          "key": "operating_margin",
          "unit": "FRACTION",
          "label": "Operating profit margin",
          "value": "0.41"
        },
        {
          "key": "cash_tax_rate",
          "unit": "FRACTION",
          "label": "Cash tax rate",
          "value": "0.15"
        },
        {
          "key": "net_ppe_investment_ratio",
          "unit": "FRACTION",
          "label": "Net investment in property and equipment / revenue",
          "value": "0.064285714285714285714285714285714285714285714285714"
        },
        {
          "key": "working_capital_investment_ratio",
          "unit": "FRACTION",
          "label": "Working capital investment / revenue",
          "value": "0.04"
        },
        {
          "key": "cash_reserve_per_added_revenue",
          "unit": "FRACTION",
          "label": "Cash held for each additional dollar of revenue",
          "value": "0.12"
        },
        {
          "key": "years",
          "unit": "YEARS",
          "label": "Years in this phase",
          "value": 1
        }
      ],
      "origin": "SOURCE_RECONCILED_ANALYST_ESTIMATE",
      "scenario": "LOW",
      "from_year": 2,
      "phase_index": 1,
      "evidence_ids": [
        "Q4_RELEASE",
        "Q4_REMARKS",
        "FY26_10K",
        "POST_EARNINGS_QA"
      ],
      "setting_rule": "Conditional annual operating estimate for 2028-09-03; cited disclosures inform the assumptions but do not guarantee these forecast amounts.",
      "through_year": 2,
      "capital_components": {
        "method": "EXPLICIT_ANNUAL_CASH_BUDGET_BY_PHASE",
        "origin": "SOURCE_RECONCILED_ANALYST_ESTIMATE",
        "rationale": "Conditional annual operating estimate for 2028-09-03; cited disclosures inform the assumptions but do not guarantee these forecast amounts.",
        "evidence_ids": [
          "Q4_RELEASE",
          "Q4_REMARKS",
          "FY26_10K",
          "POST_EARNINGS_QA"
        ],
        "annual_cash_capex": "30000000000",
        "capital_receipts_basis": "EXPLICIT_MODEL_FORECAST",
        "annual_depreciation_amortization": "17000000000",
        "annual_capital_incentive_receipts": "4000000000"
      }
    },
    {
      "fields": [
        {
          "key": "revenue_growth",
          "unit": "FRACTION",
          "label": "Annual revenue growth",
          "value": "0.1071428571428571428571428571428571428571428571429"
        },
        {
          "key": "operating_margin",
          "unit": "FRACTION",
          "label": "Operating profit margin",
          "value": "0.45419354838709677419354838709677419354838709677419"
        },
        {
          "key": "cash_tax_rate",
          "unit": "FRACTION",
          "label": "Cash tax rate",
          "value": "0.15"
        },
        {
          "key": "net_ppe_investment_ratio",
          "unit": "FRACTION",
          "label": "Net investment in property and equipment / revenue",
          "value": "0.058064516129032258064516129032258064516129032258065"
        },
        {
          "key": "working_capital_investment_ratio",
          "unit": "FRACTION",
          "label": "Working capital investment / revenue",
          "value": "0.04"
        },
        {
          "key": "cash_reserve_per_added_revenue",
          "unit": "FRACTION",
          "label": "Cash held for each additional dollar of revenue",
          "value": "0.12"
        },
        {
          "key": "years",
          "unit": "YEARS",
          "label": "Years in this phase",
          "value": 1
        }
      ],
      "origin": "SOURCE_RECONCILED_ANALYST_ESTIMATE",
      "scenario": "LOW",
      "from_year": 3,
      "phase_index": 2,
      "evidence_ids": [
        "Q4_RELEASE",
        "Q4_REMARKS",
        "FY26_10K",
        "POST_EARNINGS_QA"
      ],
      "setting_rule": "Conditional annual operating estimate for 2029-09-03; cited disclosures inform the assumptions but do not guarantee these forecast amounts.",
      "through_year": 3,
      "capital_components": {
        "method": "EXPLICIT_ANNUAL_CASH_BUDGET_BY_PHASE",
        "origin": "SOURCE_RECONCILED_ANALYST_ESTIMATE",
        "rationale": "Conditional annual operating estimate for 2029-09-03; cited disclosures inform the assumptions but do not guarantee these forecast amounts.",
        "evidence_ids": [
          "Q4_RELEASE",
          "Q4_REMARKS",
          "FY26_10K",
          "POST_EARNINGS_QA"
        ],
        "annual_cash_capex": "32000000000",
        "capital_receipts_basis": "EXPLICIT_MODEL_FORECAST",
        "annual_depreciation_amortization": "20000000000",
        "annual_capital_incentive_receipts": "3000000000"
      }
    },
    {
      "fields": [
        {
          "key": "revenue_growth",
          "unit": "FRACTION",
          "label": "Annual revenue growth",
          "value": "0.1290322580645161290322580645161290322580645161290"
        },
        {
          "key": "operating_margin",
          "unit": "FRACTION",
          "label": "Operating profit margin",
          "value": "0.47828571428571428571428571428571428571428571428571"
        },
        {
          "key": "cash_tax_rate",
          "unit": "FRACTION",
          "label": "Cash tax rate",
          "value": "0.15"
        },
        {
          "key": "net_ppe_investment_ratio",
          "unit": "FRACTION",
          "label": "Net investment in property and equipment / revenue",
          "value": "0.062857142857142857142857142857142857142857142857143"
        },
        {
          "key": "working_capital_investment_ratio",
          "unit": "FRACTION",
          "label": "Working capital investment / revenue",
          "value": "0.03"
        },
        {
          "key": "cash_reserve_per_added_revenue",
          "unit": "FRACTION",
          "label": "Cash held for each additional dollar of revenue",
          "value": "0.15"
        },
        {
          "key": "years",
          "unit": "YEARS",
          "label": "Years in this phase",
          "value": 1
        }
      ],
      "origin": "SOURCE_RECONCILED_ANALYST_ESTIMATE",
      "scenario": "LOW",
      "from_year": 4,
      "phase_index": 3,
      "evidence_ids": [
        "Q4_RELEASE",
        "Q4_REMARKS",
        "FY26_10K",
        "POST_EARNINGS_QA"
      ],
      "setting_rule": "Conditional annual operating estimate for 2030-09-03; cited disclosures inform the assumptions but do not guarantee these forecast amounts.",
      "through_year": 4,
      "capital_components": {
        "method": "EXPLICIT_ANNUAL_CASH_BUDGET_BY_PHASE",
        "origin": "SOURCE_RECONCILED_ANALYST_ESTIMATE",
        "rationale": "Conditional annual operating estimate for 2030-09-03; cited disclosures inform the assumptions but do not guarantee these forecast amounts.",
        "evidence_ids": [
          "Q4_RELEASE",
          "Q4_REMARKS",
          "FY26_10K",
          "POST_EARNINGS_QA"
        ],
        "annual_cash_capex": "36000000000",
        "capital_receipts_basis": "EXPLICIT_MODEL_FORECAST",
        "annual_depreciation_amortization": "22000000000",
        "annual_capital_incentive_receipts": "3000000000"
      }
    },
    {
      "fields": [
        {
          "key": "revenue_growth",
          "unit": "FRACTION",
          "label": "Annual revenue growth",
          "value": "0.1428571428571428571428571428571428571428571428571"
        },
        {
          "key": "operating_margin",
          "unit": "FRACTION",
          "label": "Operating profit margin",
          "value": "0.5025"
        },
        {
          "key": "cash_tax_rate",
          "unit": "FRACTION",
          "label": "Cash tax rate",
          "value": "0.15"
        },
        {
          "key": "net_ppe_investment_ratio",
          "unit": "FRACTION",
          "label": "Net investment in property and equipment / revenue",
          "value": "0.07"
        },
        {
          "key": "working_capital_investment_ratio",
          "unit": "FRACTION",
          "label": "Working capital investment / revenue",
          "value": "0.03"
        },
        {
          "key": "cash_reserve_per_added_revenue",
          "unit": "FRACTION",
          "label": "Cash held for each additional dollar of revenue",
          "value": "0.15"
        },
        {
          "key": "years",
          "unit": "YEARS",
          "label": "Years in this phase",
          "value": 1
        }
      ],
      "origin": "SOURCE_RECONCILED_ANALYST_ESTIMATE",
      "scenario": "LOW",
      "from_year": 5,
      "phase_index": 4,
      "evidence_ids": [
        "Q4_RELEASE",
        "Q4_REMARKS",
        "FY26_10K",
        "POST_EARNINGS_QA"
      ],
      "setting_rule": "Conditional annual operating estimate for 2031-09-03; cited disclosures inform the assumptions but do not guarantee these forecast amounts.",
      "through_year": 5,
      "capital_components": {
        "method": "EXPLICIT_ANNUAL_CASH_BUDGET_BY_PHASE",
        "origin": "SOURCE_RECONCILED_ANALYST_ESTIMATE",
        "rationale": "Conditional annual operating estimate for 2031-09-03; cited disclosures inform the assumptions but do not guarantee these forecast amounts.",
        "evidence_ids": [
          "Q4_RELEASE",
          "Q4_REMARKS",
          "FY26_10K",
          "POST_EARNINGS_QA"
        ],
        "annual_cash_capex": "40000000000",
        "capital_receipts_basis": "EXPLICIT_MODEL_FORECAST",
        "annual_depreciation_amortization": "24000000000",
        "annual_capital_incentive_receipts": "2000000000"
      }
    },
    {
      "fields": [
        {
          "key": "revenue_growth",
          "unit": "FRACTION",
          "label": "Annual revenue growth",
          "value": "0.1"
        },
        {
          "key": "operating_margin",
          "unit": "FRACTION",
          "label": "Operating profit margin",
          "value": "0.51454545454545454545454545454545454545454545454545"
        },
        {
          "key": "cash_tax_rate",
          "unit": "FRACTION",
          "label": "Cash tax rate",
          "value": "0.15"
        },
        {
          "key": "net_ppe_investment_ratio",
          "unit": "FRACTION",
          "label": "Net investment in property and equipment / revenue",
          "value": "0.072727272727272727272727272727272727272727272727273"
        },
        {
          "key": "working_capital_investment_ratio",
          "unit": "FRACTION",
          "label": "Working capital investment / revenue",
          "value": "0.03"
        },
        {
          "key": "cash_reserve_per_added_revenue",
          "unit": "FRACTION",
          "label": "Cash held for each additional dollar of revenue",
          "value": "0.15"
        },
        {
          "key": "years",
          "unit": "YEARS",
          "label": "Years in this phase",
          "value": 1
        }
      ],
      "origin": "SOURCE_RECONCILED_ANALYST_ESTIMATE",
      "scenario": "LOW",
      "from_year": 6,
      "phase_index": 5,
      "evidence_ids": [
        "Q4_RELEASE",
        "Q4_REMARKS",
        "FY26_10K",
        "POST_EARNINGS_QA"
      ],
      "setting_rule": "Conditional annual operating estimate for 2032-09-03; cited disclosures inform the assumptions but do not guarantee these forecast amounts.",
      "through_year": 6,
      "capital_components": {
        "method": "EXPLICIT_ANNUAL_CASH_BUDGET_BY_PHASE",
        "origin": "SOURCE_RECONCILED_ANALYST_ESTIMATE",
        "rationale": "Conditional annual operating estimate for 2032-09-03; cited disclosures inform the assumptions but do not guarantee these forecast amounts.",
        "evidence_ids": [
          "Q4_RELEASE",
          "Q4_REMARKS",
          "FY26_10K",
          "POST_EARNINGS_QA"
        ],
        "annual_cash_capex": "44000000000",
        "capital_receipts_basis": "EXPLICIT_MODEL_FORECAST",
        "annual_depreciation_amortization": "26000000000",
        "annual_capital_incentive_receipts": "2000000000"
      }
    },
    {
      "fields": [
        {
          "key": "revenue_growth",
          "unit": "FRACTION",
          "label": "Annual revenue growth",
          "value": "1.1285701414541850617172718262906568159293630056762"
        },
        {
          "key": "operating_margin",
          "unit": "FRACTION",
          "label": "Operating profit margin",
          "value": "0.83036067019400352733686067019400352733686067019400"
        },
        {
          "key": "cash_tax_rate",
          "unit": "FRACTION",
          "label": "Cash tax rate",
          "value": "0.15"
        },
        {
          "key": "net_ppe_investment_ratio",
          "unit": "FRACTION",
          "label": "Net investment in property and equipment / revenue",
          "value": "0.16931216931216931216931216931216931216931216931217"
        },
        {
          "key": "working_capital_investment_ratio",
          "unit": "FRACTION",
          "label": "Working capital investment / revenue",
          "value": "0.05"
        },
        {
          "key": "cash_reserve_per_added_revenue",
          "unit": "FRACTION",
          "label": "Cash held for each additional dollar of revenue",
          "value": "0.15"
        },
        {
          "key": "years",
          "unit": "YEARS",
          "label": "Years in this phase",
          "value": 1
        }
      ],
      "origin": "SOURCE_RECONCILED_ANALYST_ESTIMATE",
      "scenario": "BASE",
      "from_year": 1,
      "phase_index": 0,
      "evidence_ids": [
        "Q4_RELEASE",
        "Q4_REMARKS",
        "FY26_10K",
        "POST_EARNINGS_QA"
      ],
      "setting_rule": "Conditional annual operating estimate for 2027-09-03; cited disclosures inform the assumptions but do not guarantee these forecast amounts.",
      "through_year": 1,
      "capital_components": {
        "method": "EXPLICIT_ANNUAL_CASH_BUDGET_BY_PHASE",
        "origin": "SOURCE_RECONCILED_ANALYST_ESTIMATE",
        "rationale": "Conditional annual operating estimate for 2027-09-03; cited disclosures inform the assumptions but do not guarantee these forecast amounts.",
        "evidence_ids": [
          "Q4_RELEASE",
          "Q4_REMARKS",
          "FY26_10K",
          "POST_EARNINGS_QA"
        ],
        "annual_cash_capex": "68500000000.0",
        "capital_receipts_basis": "EXPLICIT_MODEL_FORECAST",
        "annual_depreciation_amortization": "14000000000",
        "annual_capital_incentive_receipts": "6500000000.0"
      }
    },
    {
      "fields": [
        {
          "key": "revenue_growth",
          "unit": "FRACTION",
          "label": "Annual revenue growth",
          "value": "0.2169312169312169312169312169312169312169312169312"
        },
        {
          "key": "operating_margin",
          "unit": "FRACTION",
          "label": "Operating profit margin",
          "value": "0.80376811594202898550724637681159420289855072463768"
        },
        {
          "key": "cash_tax_rate",
          "unit": "FRACTION",
          "label": "Cash tax rate",
          "value": "0.15"
        },
        {
          "key": "net_ppe_investment_ratio",
          "unit": "FRACTION",
          "label": "Net investment in property and equipment / revenue",
          "value": "0.17391304347826086956521739130434782608695652173913"
        },
        {
          "key": "working_capital_investment_ratio",
          "unit": "FRACTION",
          "label": "Working capital investment / revenue",
          "value": "0.04"
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          "FY26_10K",
          "POST_EARNINGS_QA"
        ],
        "annual_cash_capex": "156000000000",
        "capital_receipts_basis": "EXPLICIT_MODEL_FORECAST",
        "annual_depreciation_amortization": "51000000000",
        "annual_capital_incentive_receipts": "11000000000"
      }
    },
    {
      "fields": [
        {
          "key": "revenue_growth",
          "unit": "FRACTION",
          "label": "Annual revenue growth",
          "value": "0.1023622047244094488188976377952755905511811023622"
        },
        {
          "key": "operating_margin",
          "unit": "FRACTION",
          "label": "Operating profit margin",
          "value": "0.71714285714285714285714285714285714285714285714286"
        },
        {
          "key": "cash_tax_rate",
          "unit": "FRACTION",
          "label": "Cash tax rate",
          "value": "0.15"
        },
        {
          "key": "net_ppe_investment_ratio",
          "unit": "FRACTION",
          "label": "Net investment in property and equipment / revenue",
          "value": "0.14"
        },
        {
          "key": "working_capital_investment_ratio",
          "unit": "FRACTION",
          "label": "Working capital investment / revenue",
          "value": "0.04"
        },
        {
          "key": "cash_reserve_per_added_revenue",
          "unit": "FRACTION",
          "label": "Cash held for each additional dollar of revenue",
          "value": "0.30"
        },
        {
          "key": "years",
          "unit": "YEARS",
          "label": "Years in this phase",
          "value": 1
        }
      ],
      "origin": "SOURCE_RECONCILED_ANALYST_ESTIMATE",
      "scenario": "HIGH",
      "from_year": 6,
      "phase_index": 5,
      "evidence_ids": [
        "Q4_RELEASE",
        "Q4_REMARKS",
        "FY26_10K",
        "POST_EARNINGS_QA"
      ],
      "setting_rule": "Conditional annual operating estimate for 2032-09-03; cited disclosures inform the assumptions but do not guarantee these forecast amounts.",
      "through_year": 6,
      "capital_components": {
        "method": "EXPLICIT_ANNUAL_CASH_BUDGET_BY_PHASE",
        "origin": "SOURCE_RECONCILED_ANALYST_ESTIMATE",
        "rationale": "Conditional annual operating estimate for 2032-09-03; cited disclosures inform the assumptions but do not guarantee these forecast amounts.",
        "evidence_ids": [
          "Q4_RELEASE",
          "Q4_REMARKS",
          "FY26_10K",
          "POST_EARNINGS_QA"
        ],
        "annual_cash_capex": "172000000000",
        "capital_receipts_basis": "EXPLICIT_MODEL_FORECAST",
        "annual_depreciation_amortization": "62000000000",
        "annual_capital_incentive_receipts": "12000000000"
      }
    }
  ]
}

Published maturity assumptions

{
  "maturity": [
    {
      "basis": "Mature-state assumptions retained from the reviewed fixed calculation control.",
      "origin": "RETAINED_FIXED_ANNUAL_PROFILE",
      "scenario": "LOW",
      "unknowns": [
        "A reviewed conditional analyst pack, not an automatic model certification or a price forecast.",
        "Only the current release and one post-earnings Q&A are newly interpreted; retained prior evidence and reviewed primary remarks supplement them. Full news/archive extraction is not claimed.",
        "Issuer guidance is limited to disclosed periods; all later revenue, margins, costs and gross incentive receipts are analyst estimates.",
        "Consensus numerical estimates are excluded where their fiscal/accounting basis is uncertified; defective GDP and industry-calendar inputs are not used.",
        "Six explicit annual windows and three transition years are retained; terminal growth, terminal operating margins, tax and annual funding settings match the prior selected policy.",
        "Cash tax remains the retained 15% assumption; the newly disclosed 15.5% effective tax guidance is not a cash-tax forecast.",
        "High assumes continued scarcity premiums and successful funded capacity execution; bear stresses failure of the current management outlook.",
        "Cash incentives are modeled separately from gross cash capex and depreciation. Financing and capital return beyond disclosed opening claims are uncertain."
      ],
      "evidence_ids": [
        "ACCOUNTING",
        "BUSINESS_PATHS",
        "RATES"
      ],
      "terminal_growth": "0.02",
      "operating_margin": "0.45",
      "return_persistence": "PERSISTENT_OPERATING_MARGIN",
      "annual_revenue_growth_rates": [
        "0.05",
        "0.04",
        "0.03"
      ],
      "net_capital_per_added_revenue": "0.35",
      "cash_reserve_per_added_revenue": "0.10"
    },
    {
      "basis": "Mature-state assumptions retained from the reviewed fixed calculation control.",
      "origin": "RETAINED_FIXED_ANNUAL_PROFILE",
      "scenario": "BASE",
      "unknowns": [
        "A reviewed conditional analyst pack, not an automatic model certification or a price forecast.",
        "Only the current release and one post-earnings Q&A are newly interpreted; retained prior evidence and reviewed primary remarks supplement them. Full news/archive extraction is not claimed.",
        "Issuer guidance is limited to disclosed periods; all later revenue, margins, costs and gross incentive receipts are analyst estimates.",
        "Consensus numerical estimates are excluded where their fiscal/accounting basis is uncertified; defective GDP and industry-calendar inputs are not used.",
        "Six explicit annual windows and three transition years are retained; terminal growth, terminal operating margins, tax and annual funding settings match the prior selected policy.",
        "Cash tax remains the retained 15% assumption; the newly disclosed 15.5% effective tax guidance is not a cash-tax forecast.",
        "High assumes continued scarcity premiums and successful funded capacity execution; bear stresses failure of the current management outlook.",
        "Cash incentives are modeled separately from gross cash capex and depreciation. Financing and capital return beyond disclosed opening claims are uncertain."
      ],
      "evidence_ids": [
        "ACCOUNTING",
        "BUSINESS_PATHS",
        "RATES"
      ],
      "terminal_growth": "0.03",
      "operating_margin": "0.55",
      "return_persistence": "PERSISTENT_OPERATING_MARGIN",
      "annual_revenue_growth_rates": [
        "0.08",
        "0.06",
        "0.05"
      ],
      "net_capital_per_added_revenue": "0.25",
      "cash_reserve_per_added_revenue": "0.20"
    },
    {
      "basis": "Mature-state assumptions retained from the reviewed fixed calculation control.",
      "origin": "RETAINED_FIXED_ANNUAL_PROFILE",
      "scenario": "HIGH",
      "unknowns": [
        "A reviewed conditional analyst pack, not an automatic model certification or a price forecast.",
        "Only the current release and one post-earnings Q&A are newly interpreted; retained prior evidence and reviewed primary remarks supplement them. Full news/archive extraction is not claimed.",
        "Issuer guidance is limited to disclosed periods; all later revenue, margins, costs and gross incentive receipts are analyst estimates.",
        "Consensus numerical estimates are excluded where their fiscal/accounting basis is uncertified; defective GDP and industry-calendar inputs are not used.",
        "Six explicit annual windows and three transition years are retained; terminal growth, terminal operating margins, tax and annual funding settings match the prior selected policy.",
        "Cash tax remains the retained 15% assumption; the newly disclosed 15.5% effective tax guidance is not a cash-tax forecast.",
        "High assumes continued scarcity premiums and successful funded capacity execution; bear stresses failure of the current management outlook.",
        "Cash incentives are modeled separately from gross cash capex and depreciation. Financing and capital return beyond disclosed opening claims are uncertain."
      ],
      "evidence_ids": [
        "ACCOUNTING",
        "BUSINESS_PATHS",
        "RATES"
      ],
      "terminal_growth": "0.04",
      "operating_margin": "0.65",
      "return_persistence": "PERSISTENT_OPERATING_MARGIN",
      "annual_revenue_growth_rates": [
        "0.12",
        "0.10",
        "0.08"
      ],
      "net_capital_per_added_revenue": "0.20",
      "cash_reserve_per_added_revenue": "0.30"
    }
  ]
}

Published source-linked initiative observations

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      "source_date": "2026-09-10 14:36:50+00:00",
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      ],
      "setting_rule": "SCAs provide volume stability and price bands, enhancing cash flow predictability. Revenue growth is supported by take-or-pay agreements, and operating margins are improved by reduced price volatility. Cash reserves build faster due to guaranteed payments.",
      "initiative_id": "I0372cfaf96e68766",
      "affected_fields": [
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        "operating_margin",
        "cash_reserve_per_added_revenue"
      ]
    },
    {
      "name": "CHIPS Incentives Program",
      "state": "PROGRESS_REPORTED",
      "condition": "Funding is subject to conditions and may be clawed back if milestones are not met.",
      "included_in": "CONSOLIDATED_PATH",
      "source_date": "2026-06-24 22:59:46+00:00",
      "source_refs": [
        {
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        }
      ],
      "setting_rule": "CHIPS Act funding reduces net CapEx, lowering net_ppe_investment_ratio and increasing cash_reserve_per_added_revenue.",
      "initiative_id": "I090c0fef5740cd83",
      "affected_fields": [
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        "cash_reserve_per_added_revenue"
      ]
    },
    {
      "name": "modernizing our Hiroshima manufacturing facility",
      "state": "PROGRESS_REPORTED",
      "condition": "Modernization is ongoing and will support AI memory production.",
      "included_in": "CONSOLIDATED_PATH",
      "source_date": "2026-06-24 22:59:46+00:00",
      "source_refs": [
        {
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      ],
      "setting_rule": "Hiroshima modernization supports future DRAM nodes, improving operating_margin over time and contributing to net_ppe_investment_ratio.",
      "initiative_id": "I0ad5782fa2da65bd",
      "affected_fields": [
        "operating_margin",
        "net_ppe_investment_ratio"
      ]
    },
    {
      "name": "planned four-fab facility",
      "state": "UNKNOWN",
      "condition": "Supply is expected in 2030 and beyond. Funding is subject to conditions.",
      "included_in": "CONSOLIDATED_PATH",
      "source_date": "2026-06-24 22:59:46+00:00",
      "source_refs": [
        {
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      "setting_rule": "New York four-fab facility is a major CapEx driver, increasing net_ppe_investment_ratio. State funding reduces net cost, increasing cash_reserve_per_added_revenue.",
      "initiative_id": "I0f12ab37ece4be33",
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    },
    {
      "name": "this site",
      "state": "UNKNOWN",
      "condition": "The site is expected to support meaningful product shipments from the existing fab beginning in mid-calendar 2027.",
      "included_in": "CONSOLIDATED_PATH",
      "source_date": "2026-06-24 22:59:46+00:00",
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        {
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      ],
      "setting_rule": "The site is expected to support meaningful product shipments from the existing fab beginning in mid-calendar 2027. This is reflected in the revenue growth and operating margin assumptions for Year 2 (FY2027) and Year 3 (FY2028). The net PPE investment ratio is high in Year 1 and Year 2 to fund the construction and ramp-up of the site.",
      "initiative_id": "I0fc007de14e0ce1b",
      "affected_fields": [
        "revenue_growth",
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        "net_ppe_investment_ratio"
      ]
    },
    {
      "name": "streamline our product portfolio",
      "state": "PROGRESS_REPORTED",
      "condition": "As we streamline our product portfolio, we may face execution risks that could impact our ability to support demand and maintain share in certain markets.",
      "included_in": "CONSOLIDATED_PATH",
      "source_date": "2026-06-24 22:59:46+00:00",
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      "setting_rule": "Streamlining the product portfolio may face execution risks that could impact the ability to support demand and maintain share in certain markets. This is reflected in the operating margin and revenue growth assumptions.",
      "initiative_id": "I10ca7d36b11698cf",
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    },
    {
      "name": "expand our production capacity in the United States and in other regions",
      "state": "PROGRESS_REPORTED",
      "condition": "Expansion is ongoing to meet expected demand. New fabs (Idaho, New York, Singapore) are in construction or ramp-up phases.",
      "included_in": "CONSOLIDATED_PATH",
      "source_date": "2026-06-24 22:59:46+00:00",
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      "setting_rule": "Capacity expansion drives high net PPE investment ratios in Years 1-3. Operating margins are impacted by the ramp-up costs and depreciation of new facilities. The $27B FY26 CapEx and >40% FY27 CapEx guidance are directly attributable to this initiative.",
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    },
    {
      "name": "additional advanced wafer fab facility",
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      "setting_rule": "Singapore NAND fab expansion increases net_ppe_investment_ratio. Operational in H2 2028, it will improve operating_margin through scale.",
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    {
      "name": "LP5X SOCAMM2",
      "state": "DELIVERED",
      "condition": "LP5X SOCAMM2 is in high-volume production and contributing to revenue growth and operating margins.",
      "included_in": "ALREADY_IN_OPERATING_REFERENCE",
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    },
    {
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Published frozen forecast outcomes

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      "forecast": {
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        "scenario_values": {
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      "absolute_error": null,
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    {
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      "forecast": {
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        "metric": "operating_profit",
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    {
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      "actual": null,
      "reason": "NO_COMPARABLE_RELEASED_ACTUAL",
      "forecast": {
        "low": "42000000000",
        "base": "74000000000",
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        "forecast_id": "3724ac9ac25b250dc21dd0b1623aee66aa26bb3aa2f292000a7de3d3485b51cf",
        "construction": "COMPANY_PATH_WITH_EXPLICIT_FISCAL_ALLOCATION_AND_BOUND_GUIDANCE",
        "fiscal_period": "2027-Q3",
        "scenario_values": {
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          "HIGH": "85000000000"
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        "accounting_basis": "GAAP"
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      "evaluation_id": "712c1eb0ee0b862a84b060f6df656a5f1aaeaedecb4fa0a5b5d687f77f224e42",
      "absolute_error": null,
      "relative_error": null
    },
    {
      "status": "UNKNOWN",
      "actual": null,
      "reason": "NO_COMPARABLE_RELEASED_ACTUAL",
      "forecast": {
        "low": "22600000000.00",
        "base": "61728000000.000",
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        "metric": "operating_profit",
        "known_at": "2026-10-13T18:31:52.801763+00:00",
        "paths_ref": {
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        "scenario_values": {
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      "absolute_error": null,
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    },
    {
      "status": "UNKNOWN",
      "actual": null,
      "reason": "NO_COMPARABLE_RELEASED_ACTUAL",
      "forecast": {
        "low": "36000000000",
        "base": "80000000000",
        "high": "97000000000",
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        "metric": "revenue",
        "known_at": "2026-10-13T18:31:52.801763+00:00",
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          "subject_id": "827f3988-d9c5-4696-b0b7-510ab57ba69c",
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        "construction": "COMPANY_PATH_WITH_EXPLICIT_FISCAL_ALLOCATION_AND_BOUND_GUIDANCE",
        "fiscal_period": "2027-Q4",
        "scenario_values": {
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      "absolute_error": null,
      "relative_error": null
    },
    {
      "status": "UNKNOWN",
      "actual": null,
      "reason": "NO_COMPARABLE_RELEASED_ACTUAL",
      "forecast": {
        "low": "17060000000.00",
        "base": "66860000000.000",
        "high": "82930000000.00",
        "unit": "USD",
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        "metric": "operating_profit",
        "known_at": "2026-10-13T18:31:52.801763+00:00",
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        "forecast_id": "957ec9387e4cca370452106e8175d0eeb54214f7be46a3973ba0b498d6c084b5",
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        "fiscal_period": "2027-Q4",
        "scenario_values": {
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      "evaluation_id": "9abb08a618dcd1cadc6837144f4850ccfba4cd55c12f50108b4483d5aa8eb8ee",
      "absolute_error": null,
      "relative_error": null
    }
  ]
}

Empirical operating-error envelope

Conditional operating-error evidence, separate from the scenario range. This is not a probability interval covering every valuation assumption. The published status, labels and limitations follow.

{
  "empirical_range": {
    "low": {
      "value": "1840.0311334427027006316758867188942195651778748165",
      "symbol": "KWR",
      "donor_id": "00e5b84b9fa54daa0506b16a3f027d346fe207918adb49dc774362336c6c5299:5",
      "donor_ref": {
        "why_id": "b3c84c5c-8167-5c93-afd6-516301d15bbc",
        "known_at": "2026-09-08T13:00:21.020718+00:00",
        "subject_id": "KWR",
        "output_hash": "e79a516960d3bda6a1a3a662ae72682eb0164407216c9e7136ec27affe2c3d3d",
        "record_hash": "0e578d7156c946a5a0e823c9f39766b16912b8cdcfd873b7142d5851f6ea9fb6"
      },
      "negative_economic_residual": false
    },
    "base": "2119.5357613214230787935931104021440882865232761773",
    "high": {
      "value": "2711.9054055861008653498829023360201028102673579608",
      "symbol": "KMI",
      "donor_id": "ea404be0a16db57c1763f64a635af262ece57d6985b23b62f64b525ab8c9616b:5",
      "donor_ref": {
        "why_id": "3067070a-5436-519d-be31-3e4a4322ddc7",
        "known_at": "2026-09-08T13:00:21.020718+00:00",
        "subject_id": "KMI",
        "output_hash": "3cc1cf1a5ddc27077aa64c7eadc72157514fab177a4ae4be819b2d5c5af49e86",
        "record_hash": "33bb8a7d622be3835cc517ee66829d1edba8f43d49912a358b3a00d154bae672"
      },
      "negative_economic_residual": false
    },
    "issuers": 64,
    "meaning": "CONDITIONAL_EMPIRICAL_MODEL_ERROR_STRESS_NOT_TOTAL_FV_PROBABILITY",
    "donor_paths": 229
  }
}

Published changes and transitions

{
  "changes": [],
  "transitions": [
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      "subject_id": "a4f3726fcbf5e3fd9a0377bb0adc978895e8b1534bc589e54a61976000d9b76a",
      "from_status": "UNKNOWN",
      "evaluation_id": "236c456f85844135254f795132a730f9501ce8c9ae780e2f0ffe481c24451efe",
      "notification_status": "IN_APP_EVENT_ONLY",
      "previous_evaluation_id": "4a9f1d778cd8ca23a300e86443c12a99f8a64ed02151902026648666e8032f50"
    },
    {
      "event_id": "9813e82ddada970bae4403b3c9a75aea8beabf3f7aa881edd743b4dc67a94001",
      "to_status": "ABOVE_RANGE",
      "subject_id": "723cbc264b740b41a92722bd7ef7490b130024e668055fdb61e55cf98e2759a5",
      "from_status": "UNKNOWN",
      "evaluation_id": "51de5aa05a416bdfb7e69245a5c7a25fea7bce635b0a4cb5432da0850d28a30c",
      "notification_status": "IN_APP_EVENT_ONLY",
      "previous_evaluation_id": "b97fed3f9179f02d0cd962588fea992b8c1890fe04a257bc8125d0eb9e70af1c"
    },
    {
      "event_id": "4ff7a7201b23d1f9357c976c850fee94c15c2807443fa0d66d2b320854492a37",
      "to_status": "ABOVE_RANGE",
      "subject_id": "af66054d9fc8edc546427389be2899d2a77ef7c792f2accfa6533363baf2b384",
      "from_status": "UNKNOWN",
      "evaluation_id": "2330065483c69e41fba1433fc04264ee7762667a420a58f769d5c87967837af9",
      "notification_status": "IN_APP_EVENT_ONLY",
      "previous_evaluation_id": "698989e4d3a71b51dec8abba4ba48141e7bf8a558f7bc89a36f48ef2621e0ebf"
    },
    {
      "event_id": "5fd486f1207e8feece9dd74b1cbea18c8c6aa2062335ea87eefc422097bab442",
      "to_status": "ABOVE_RANGE",
      "subject_id": "b9435fbc72207b37f352e38543b1069f73f17fd3fc9c70e753efca907ed62e15",
      "from_status": "UNKNOWN",
      "evaluation_id": "5f3c14231b6e82ed187b0e0e468dcfd01c979132b712b3c9d3dc57174d5a92b0",
      "notification_status": "IN_APP_EVENT_ONLY",
      "previous_evaluation_id": "20dc5fe718e6c24eae826caaf62c41fc14246b5df9ea4fd31e854f2694c8d812"
    },
    {
      "event_id": "fea62bd8af46710ddb5f3b9c7045d49e869cc204662907b1f54eceef69005fe0",
      "to_status": "ABOVE_RANGE",
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      "previous_evaluation_id": "e91162f7dcf1c7b1b9e54c3c317dabe49e2da125ddda8c6366b762a679c6a464"
    },
    {
      "event_id": "53e6da8ff9259ff48e62a993f1d1ca016c503047f1c315f264aad4e32996a04e",
      "to_status": "ABOVE_RANGE",
      "subject_id": "92f4e399905b91496037ff39f6378ba7ad8561f3643aaf40ab10a416f5f10588",
      "from_status": "UNKNOWN",
      "evaluation_id": "871b124202178cbe071826d0b551788a4f6a66909540eca1734660c8bad313ab",
      "notification_status": "IN_APP_EVENT_ONLY",
      "previous_evaluation_id": "fb41c88210da7da7edddd113fd0163c6dbe7293c880527fc5bdc679bfdd8c5f0"
    }
  ]
}

Additional published report fields

{
  "version": "living_fv_report_v1",
  "status": "CALCULATED_CONDITIONAL",
  "headline_scenario": "BASE",
  "publication_status": "CURRENT",
  "symbol": "MU",
  "currency": "USD",
  "valuation_date": "2026-10-13",
  "reported_opening_date": "2026-09-03",
  "source_asof": "2026-10-13T18:25:25.249568+00:00",
  "published_at": "2026-10-13T19:54:59.381572+00:00",
  "following_status": "CURRENT",
  "updates_status": "AWAITING_CURRENT_UPDATE_RECEIPT",
  "disclaimer": "Not investment advice.",
  "name": null,
  "hypothesis": {
    "reset": "Read the latest living report and discard overrides.",
    "targets": [
      "phase",
      "capital",
      "maturity",
      "rate"
    ],
    "version": "living_fv_user_hypothesis_v1",
    "independence": "User scenarios never replace the living company selection.",
    "phase_fields": {
      "years": "Years in this phase",
      "cash_tax_rate": "Cash tax rate",
      "revenue_growth": "Annual revenue growth",
      "operating_margin": "Operating profit margin",
      "net_ppe_investment_ratio": "Net investment in property and equipment / revenue",
      "cash_reserve_per_added_revenue": "Cash held for each additional dollar of revenue",
      "working_capital_investment_ratio": "Working capital investment / revenue"
    }
  }
}

Report identity and exact published values

Living version identifies the selected calculation.

Report id

6c9ee2ac-4d38-5e36-b6f9-feb08d2754ad

Living version

9798d060-9178-5b40-9eac-cc0db9e1433a

Value ranges

Key
existing_business
Label
Value of today’s operating business
Meaning
Current reported operating scale, with the stated tax, funding and return assumptions.
Low
709.41548119009270124011910429559834720087462591294
Base
709.41548119009270124011910429559834720087462591294
High
709.41548119009270124011910429559834720087462591294
Negative economic residual
No
Negative value meaning
A negative economic residual indicates a funding shortfall under these financing assumptions; it is not a negative tradable share price.
Key
joint_funded_business
Label
Value including the business growth plan
Meaning
The whole company forecast, including initiative effects and the investment needed to deliver them.
Low

Not investment advice.

Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.